Q and A continued:
Stories about the fictional planet Nibiru and predictions of doomsday in December 2012 have blossomed on the Internet. There are now (June 2009) more than 175 books listed on Amazon.com dealing with the 2012 doomsday. As this hoax spreads, many more disaster scenarios are being suggested. “Ask an Astrobiologist” has received nearly a thousand questions about Nibiru and 2012, with more than 200 answers posted. Many new questions are similar to those already answered. Following is a list of the most popular “Twenty Questions” organized in a logical succession and answered in some detail.
In addition to my responses, there are some other good resources
NASA home page story 2012: Beginning of the End or Why the World Won’t End?
Neil de Grassse Tyson posted a nice video clip on the Nibiru-2012 issue.
Wikipedia has several useful entries. Start with Nibiru Collision, then look at Nibiru Mythology and Nibiru Sitchin). Also informative is the entry for 2012 doomsday predictions.
For a detailed description of the origin of the Planet X / Nibiru cult see the discussion by Phil Plait on his Badastronomy website.
David Morrison,
NAI Senior Scientist
June 1, 2009
1. What is the origin of the prediction that the world will end in December 2012?
The story started with claims that Nibiru, a supposed planet discovered by the Sumerians, is headed toward Earth. Zecharia Sitchin, who writes fiction about the ancient Mesopotamian civilization of Sumer, claimed in several books (e.g., The Twelfth Planet, published in 1976) that he has found and translated Sumerian documents that identify the planet Nibiru, orbiting the Sun every 3600 years. These Sumerian fables include stories of “ancient astronauts” visiting Earth from a civilization of aliens called the Anunnaki. Then Nancy Lieder, a self-declared psychic who claims she is channeling aliens, wrote on her website Zetatalk that the inhabitants of a fictional planet around the star Zeta Reticuli warned her that the Earth was in danger from Planet X or Nibiru. This catastrophe was initially predicted for May 2003, but when nothing happened the doomsday date was moved forward to December 2012. Only recently have these two fables been linked to the end of the Mayan long-count at the winter solstice in 2012 – hence the predicted doomsday date of December 21, 2012.
2. The Sumerians were the first great civilization, and they made many accurate astronomical predictions, including the existence of the planets Uranus, Neptune and Pluto. So why should we not believe their predictions about Nibiru?
Nibiru is a name in Babylonian astrology sometimes associated with the god Marduk. Nibiru appears as a minor character in the Babylonian creation poem Enuma Elish as recorded in the library of Assurbanipal, King of Assyria (668-627 BCE). Sumer flourished much earlier, from about the 23rd century to the 17th century BCE. The claims that Nibiru is a planet and was known to the Sumerians are contradicted by scholars who (unlike Zecharia Sitchin) study and translate the written records of ancient Mesopotamia. Sumer was indeed a great civilization, important for the development of agriculture, water management, urban life, and especially writing. However, they left very few records dealing with astronomy. Certainly they did not know about the existence of Uranus, Neptune or Pluto. They also had no understanding that the planets orbited the Sun, an idea that first developed in ancient Greece two millennia after the end of Sumer. Claims that Sumerians had a sophisticated astronomy, or that they even had a god named Nibiru, are the product of Sitchin’s imagination.
3. How can you deny the existence of Nibiru when NASA discovered it in 1983 and the story appeared in leading newspapers? At that time you called it Planet X, and later it was named Xena or Eris.
IRAS (the NASA Infrared Astronomy Satellite, which carried out a sky survey for 10 months in 1983) discovered many infrared sources, but none of them was Nibiru or Planet X or any other objects in the outer solar system. There is a good discussion from Caltech to be found at (spider.ipac.caltech.edu/staff/tchester/iras/no_tenth_planet_yet.html). Briefly, IRAS cataloged 350,000 infrared sources, and initially many of these sources were unidentified (which was the point, of course, of making such a survey). All of these observations have been followed up by subsequent studies with more powerful instruments both on the ground and in space. The rumor about a “tenth planet” erupted in 1984 after a scientific paper was published in Astrophysical Journal Letters titled “Unidentified point sources in the IRAS minisurvey”, which discussed several infrared sources with “no counterparts”. But these “mystery objects” were subsequently found to be distant galaxies (except one, which was a wisp of “infrared cirrus”), as published in 1987. No IRAS source has ever turned out to be a planet. A good discussion of this whole issue is to be found on Phil Plait’s website (www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/planetx/science.html#iras). The bottom line is that Nibiru is a myth, with no basis in fact. To an astronomer, persistent claims about a planet that is “nearby” but “invisible” are just plain silly.
4. Maybe we should be asking about Planet X or Eris, not Nibiru. Why does NASA keep secret the orbit of Eris?
“Planet X” is an oxymoron when applied to a real object. The term has been used by astronomers over the past century for a possible or suspected object. Once the object is found, it is given a real name, as was done with Pluto and Eris, both of which were at some time referred to as Planet X. If a new object turns out to be not real, or not a planet, then you won’t hear about it again. If it is real, it is not called Planet X.
Eris is one of several dwarf planets recently found by astronomers in the outer solar system, all of them on normal orbits that will never bring them near Earth. Like Pluto, Eris is smaller than our Moon. It is very far away, and its orbit never brings it closer than about 4 billion miles. There is no secret about Eris and its orbit, as you can easily verify by googling it or looking it up in Wikipedia.
5. Do you deny that NASA built a South Pole Telescope (SPT) to track Nibiru? Why else would they build a telescope at the South Pole?
There is a telescope at the South Pole, but it was not built by NASA and not used to study Nibiru. The South Pole Telescope was supported by the National Science Foundation, and it is a radio telescope, not an optical instrument. It cannot take images or photos. You can look it up on Wikipedia. The Antarctic is a great place for astronomical infrared and short-wave-radio observations, and it also has the advantage that objects can be observed continuously without the interference of the day-night cycle.
I should add that it is impossible to imagine a geometry in which an object can be seen only from the South Pole. Even if it were due south of the Earth, it could be seen from the entire southern hemisphere.
6. There are many photos and videos of Nibiru on the Internet. Isn’t that proof that it exists?
The great majority of the photos and videos on the Internet are of some feature near the Sun (apparently supporting the claim that Nibiru has been hiding behind the Sun for the past several years.) These are actually false images of the Sun caused by internal reflections in the lens, often called lens flare. You can identify them easily by the fact that they appear diametrically opposite the real solar image, as if reflected across the center of the image. This is especially obvious in videos, where as the camera moves, the false image dances about always exactly opposite the real image. Similar lens flare is a source of many UFO photos taken at night with strong light sources such as streetlights in the frame. I am surprised that people don’t recognize this common photo artifact. I am also amazed that these photos showing something nearly as large and bright as the Sun (a “second sun”) are accepted together with claims made on some of the same websites that Nibiru is too faint to be seen or photographed except with large telescopes.
One widely reported telescopic photo (www.greatdreams.com/nibiru-possible.jpg) shows two views of an expanding gas cloud far beyond the solar system, which is not moving; you can see this from the fact that the stars are the same in both pictures. A sharp-eyed reader of this website identified these photos as a gas shell around the star V838 Mon. Wikipedia has a nice write-up and a beautiful photo of it from Hubble. Another high school student was initially impressed by posted images of a red blob that were said to be of Nibiru. Then he worked out in his Photoshop class how to make just such pictures starting from scratch.
One video posted in summer 2008 on Youtube (www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDKtkWIx00A) shows a guy standing in his kitchen claiming that one of the objects discovered by a NASA x-ray telescope is Nibiru. What is his evidence? That since this false-color x-ray image released by NASA is blue, this must really be a nearby planet with an ocean. This would be hilarious if it were not used to frighten people.
7. Can you explain the fact that the area at (5h 53m 27s, -6 10’ 58”) has been blackened out in Google Sky and Microsoft Telescope? People suggest that these have been blackened out because those are the co-ordinates where Nibiru is located at present.
Several people have asked me about this blank rectangle in Orion in Google Sky, which is a presentation of images from the Sloan Digital Survey. This can’t be a “hiding place” for Nibiru, since it is a part of the sky that could be seen from almost everywhere on the Earth in the winter of 2007-08 when much of the talk about Nibiru began. That would contradict the claims that Nibiru was hiding behind the Sun or that it could be seen only from the southern hemisphere. But I too was curious about this blank rectangle, so I asked a friend who is a senior scientist at Google. He replied that he “found out that the missing data is due to a processing error in the image stitching program we use to display the Sloan survey images. The team assures me that in the next run through, this will be fixed!”
8. If the government knew about Nibiru, wouldn’t they keep it a secret to avoid panic? Isn’t it the government’s job to keep the population at ease?
There are many objectives of government, but they do not include keeping the population at ease. My experience is that sometimes parts of the government do just the opposite, as in the frequent references to various terrorist threats or warnings about driving accidents on long holiday weekends, which are no more dangerous than any other time. There is a long history of associating bad things with political opponents (older readers will remember the “missile gap” in the 1960 election, younger ones will note the many current references to who is or is not keeping the U.S. safe from terrorists). Further, social scientists have pointed out that many of our concepts of public panic are the product of Hollywood, while in the real world people have a good record of helping each other in a time of danger. I think everyone also recognizes that keeping bad news secret usually backfires, making the issue even worse when the facts finally come out. And in the case of Nibiru, these facts would come out very soon indeed.
Even if they wanted to, the government could not keep Nibiru a secret. If it were real, it would be tracked by thousands of astronomers, amateurs as well a professional. These astronomers are spread all over the world. I know the astronomy community, and these scientists would not keep a secret even if ordered to. You just can’t hide a planet on its way to the inner solar system!
9. Why does the Mayan calendar say the world will end in 2012? I have heard that they have been pretty accurate in the past with other planetary predictions. How can you be sure you know more than they did?
Calendars exist for keeping track of the passage of time, not for predicting the future. The Mayan astronomers were clever, and they developed a very complex calendar. Ancient calendars are interesting to historians, but of they cannot match the ability we have today to keep track of time, or the precision of the calendars currently in use. The main point, however, is that calendars, whether contemporary or ancient, cannot predict the future of our planet or warn of things to happen on a specific date such as 2012.
I note that my desk calendar ends much sooner, on December 31 2009, but I do not interpret this as a prediction of Armageddon. It is just the beginning of a new year.
10. What is the polar shift theory? Is it true that the earth’s crust does a 180-degree rotation around the core in a matter of days if not hours? Does this have something to do to do with our solar system dipping beneath the galactic equator?
A reversal in the rotation of Earth is impossible. It has never happened and never will. There are slow movements of the continents (for example Antarctica was near the equator hundreds of millions of years ago), but that is irrelevant to claims of reversal of the rotational poles. However, many of the disaster websites pull a bait-and-shift to fool people. They claim a relationship between the rotation and the magnetic polarity of Earth, which does change irregularly with a magnetic reversal taking place every 400,000 years on average. As far as we know, such a magnetic reversal doesn’t cause any harm to life on Earth. A magnetic reversal is very unlikely to happen in the next few millennia, anyway. But they falsely claim that a magnetic reversal is coming soon (in 2012) and that this is the same as, or will trigger, a reversal of rotational poles. The bottom line is: (a) Rotation direction and magnetic polarity are not related. (b) There is no reason to expect a reversal of magnetic polarity any time soon, or to anticipate any bad effects on life when it does eventually happen. © A sudden shift in rotational pole with disastrous consequences is impossible. Also, none of this has anything to do with the galactic equator or any of the other nonsense about alignments that appears on many of the conspiracy theory websites.
11. When most of the planets align in 2012 and planet Earth is in the center of the Milky Way, what will the effects of this be on planet Earth? Could it cause a pole shift, and if so what could we expect?
There is no planet alignment in 2012 or any other time in the next several decades. As to the Earth being in the center of the Milky Way, I don’t know what this phrase means. If you are referring to the Milky Way Galaxy, we are rather far toward the edge of this spiral galaxy, some 30,000 light years from the center. We circle the galactic center in a period of 225-250 million years, always keeping approximately the same distance. Concerning a pole shift, I also don’t know what this means. If it means some sudden change in the position of the pole (that is, the rotation axis of the Earth), then that is impossible, as noted in the answer to Question 10. What many websites do discuss is the alignment of the Earth and Sun with the center of the Milky Way in the constellation of Sagittarius. This happens every December, with no bad consequences, and there is no reason to expect 2012 to be different from any other year.
12. When the sun and the Earth line up on the galactic plane at the same time with the black whole being in the center couldn’t that cause something to happen, due to the fact that the black hole has such a strong gravitational pull.
There is a giant black hole in the center of our Milky Way galaxy, and like any concentration of mass it exerts gravitational force on the rest of the Galaxy. However, the galactic center is very far away, approximately 30,000 light years, so it has negligible effects on the solar system or the Earth. There are no special forces from the galactic plane or the galactic center. The only important force that acts on the Earth is the gravitation of the Sun and Moon. As far as the influence of the galactic plane, there is nothing special about this location. The last time the Earth was in the galactic plane was several million years ago. Claims that we are about to cross the galactic plane are untrue.
13. I am scared about the fact that the Earth will enter the Dark Rift in the Milky Way. What will this do? Will the Earth be swallowed up?
The “dark rift” is a popular name for the broad and diffuse dust clouds in the
inner arm of the Milky Way Galaxy, which block our view of the galactic
center. The entire “galactic alignment” scare is pretty crazy. Late in
December the Sun is always approximately in the direction of the center of
the Galaxy as seen from the Earth, but so what? Apparently the con-men who are trying to scare you have decided to use these meaningless phrases about “alignments” and the “dark rift” and “photon belt” precisely because they are not understood by the public. It is too bad, but there is no law against lying on the Internet or anywhere else except in a court of law. As far as the safety of the Earth is concerned, the important threats are from global warming and loss of biological diversity, and perhaps someday from collision with an asteroid or comet, not the pseudoscientific claims about 2012.
14. I have heard that the Earth’s magnetic field will flip in 2012 just when the strongest level of solar storms in history is predicted to take place. Will this kill us or destroy our civilization?
Near solar maximum (which happens every 11 years approximately), there are many more solar flares and coronal mass ejections than near solar minimum. Flares and mass ejections are no danger for humans or other life on Earth. They could endanger astronauts in deep space or on the Moon, and this is something that NASA must learn to deal with, but it is not a problem for you or me. Large outbursts can interrupt radio transmission, cause bright displays of the aurora (Northern and Southern Lights), and damage the electronics of some satellites in space. Today many satellites are designed to deal with this possibility, for example by switching off some of their more delicate circuits and going into a “safe” mode for a few hours. In extreme cases solar activity can also disrupt electrical transmissions on the ground, possibly leading to electrical blackouts, but this is rare.
The last solar maximum occurred in 2001, so the next one was predicted for around 2012, 11 years later. However, the most recent solar minimum was unusual, with a period of a couple of years with almost no sunspots or other indications of solar activity, so scientists now guess that the next maximum will be delayed, perhaps to 2013. However, the details of the solar cycle remain basically unpredictable.
You are correct that the Earth’s magnetic field protects us by creating a large region in space, called the Earth’s magnetosphere, within which most of the material ejected from the Sun is captured or deflected, but there is no reason to expect a reversal of magnetic polarity any time soon. These magnetic reversals happen only once in 400,000 years on average.
15. I am confused about a report on the Fox News website that in 2012 a “Powerful Solar Storm Could Shut Down U.S. for Months”. They referred to a report from the National Academy of Sciences that was commissioned and paid for by NASA. If nothing is going to happen as a result of the event in 2012, why would NASA allow such nonsense to be reported?
NASA is pleased with the National Research Council report on heliophysics. As you note, this report includes a worst-case analysis of what could happen today if there were a repetition of the biggest solar storm ever recorded (in 1859). The problem is the way such information can be used out of context. There is no reason to expect such a large solar storm in the near future, certainly not in 2012 specifically. Your reference to “the event in 2012” illustrates this problem. There is no prediction of an “event in 2012”. We don’t even know if the next solar maximum will take place in that year. The whole 2012 disaster scenario is a hoax, fueled by ads for the Hollywood science-fiction disaster film “2012”. I can only hope that most people are able to distinguish Hollywood film plots from reality.
16. All my school friends are telling me that we are all going to die in the year 2012 due to a meteor hitting earth. Is this true?
Your friends are wrong. The Earth has always been subject to impacts by comets and asteroids, although big hits are very rare. The last big impact was 65 million years ago, and that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs. Today NASA astronomers are carrying out a survey called the Spaceguard Survey to find any large near-Earth asteroids long before they hit. We have already determined that there are no threatening asteroids as large as the one that killed the dinosaurs. All this work is done openly with the discoveries posted every day on the NASA NEO Program Office website (neo.jpl.nasa.gov), so you can see for yourself that nothing is predicted to hit in 2012.
17. If Nibiru is a hoax, why doesn’t NASA issue a denial? How can you permit these stores to circulate and frighten people? Why doesn’t the U.S. government do something about it!
If you go to the NASA home page, nasa.gov, you will see many stories that expose the Nibiru-2012 hoax. Try searching nasa.com under “Nibiru” or “2012”. There is not much more that NASA can do. These hoaxes have nothing to do with NASA and are not based on NASA data, so we as an agency are not directly involved. But scientists, both within NASA and outside, recognize that this hoax with its effort to frighten people is a distraction from more important science concerns, such as global warming and loss of biological diversity. We live in a country where there is freedom of speech, and that includes freedom to lie. You should be glad there are no censors. But if you will just use common sense I am sure you can recognize the lies. As we approach 2012, the lies will be come even more obvious.
18. Can you prove to me that Nibiru is a hoax? There are so many reports that something terrible will happen in 2012. I need proof because the government and NASA are keeping so much from us.
It is not logical to ask for proof that the 2012 doomsday is a hoax. Your questions should be to the doomsday advocates to prove that what they are saying is true, not to NASA to prove it is false. If someone claimed on the Internet that there were 50-foot tall purple elephants walking through Cleveland, would anyone expect NASA to prove this wrong? The burden of proof falls on those who make wild claims. Remember the often-quoted comment from Carl Sagan that extraordinary claims demand extraordinary levels of evidence if they are to be believed.
However, I think that astronomers have reached the point where we can offer extremely strong arguments that Nibiru does not exist. A large planet (or a brown dwarf) in our solar system would have been known to astronomers for many years, both indirectly from its gravitational perturbations on other objects and by direct detection in the infrared. The NASA Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) carried out the first all-sky survey in 1983, and several subsequent surveys would also have seen Nibiru if it were there. Further, if a large mass passed through the inner solar system every 3600 years, we would see its disruptive effects on the orbits of the inner planets, and we don’t.
You don’t need to take my word for it. Just use common sense. Have you seen Nibiru? In 2008 many websites said it would be visible to the naked eye in spring 2009. If a large planet or brown dwarf were headed for the inner solar system in 2012, it would already be tracked by hundreds of thousands of astronomers, professional and amateur, all over the world. Do you know any amateur astronomers who are watching it? Have you seen any photos or discussion of it in the big popular astronomy magazines like Sky & Telescope? Just think about it. No one could hide Nibiru if it existed.
19. What about the scary ads for the new film 2012? They tell us to look at these Internet sites to verify the doomsday threat.
The pseudoscientific claims about Nibiru and a doomsday in 2012, together with distrust of the government, are being amplified by publicity for the new film from Columbia Pictures titled 2012, to be released in November 2009. The film’s trailer, appearing in theaters and on their website , shows a tidal wave breaking over the Himalayas, with only the following words: “How would the governments of our planet prepare 6 billion people for the end of the world? [long pause] They wouldn’t. [long pause] Find out the Truth. Google search 2012”.
The film publicity includes creation of a faux scientific website (www.instituteforhumancontinuity.org/) for “The Institute for Human Continuity”, which is entirely fictitious. According to this website, the IHC is dedicated to scientific research and public preparedness. Its mission is the survival of mankind. The website explains that the Institute was founded 1978 by international leaders of government, business, and science. They say that in 2004, IHC scientists confirmed with 94% certainty that the world would be destroyed in 2012. This website encourages people to register for a lottery to select those who will be saved; a colleague submitted the name of her cat, which was accepted. I learned from Wikipedia that creating this sort of fake website is a new advertising technique called “Viral Marketing”, by analogy with computer viruses.
20. Is it possible that the influx of questions you describe is part of some kind of campaign for a book or movie, in the hopes that the volume of denials is taken as more “evidence” that there is a conspiracy?
I ask myself the same questions every day, as the volume of mail I receive about Nibiru (along with various alignments and pole shifts) keeps increasing — now more than 20 per week. Clearly there is money to be made from people’s fear about an approaching doomsday. Some of this hype is apparently advertising for the science fiction disaster movie 2012 (see Question 19). Many websites are selling books and tapes about Nibiru or even “survival kits”. It is all very sad, that with so many real issues (such as global warming and financial collapse) people are being taken in by these lies. In the final chapter of a new astronomy book (The Hunt for Planet X) by Govert Shilling, he writes: “There is plenty to do for the debunkers – the archaeologists and astronomers who take a long and skeptical look at the tidal wave of Nibiru nonsense and explain with scientific precision what is wrong with this cosmic fairy-tale. They will have their work cut out in the next few years. And on December 22, 2012 there will be a new pseudoscientific cock-and-bull story doing the rounds and the whole circus will start all over again. Because no matter how many new celestial bodies are found in our solar system, there will always be a need for a mysterious Planet X.”
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Nasa embraces 2012
NASA has finally decided to embrace that the end of the world is in 2012........ not exactly. Below, NASA Scientists answer several questions that we're frequently asked regarding 2012. I find it absolutely absurd that they would even waste their time engaging in the debate. They should certainly be spending more time hunting for global killing asteroids and photographing the far side of the moon for secret alien bases..:) Enjoy
Question (Q): Are there any threats to the Earth in 2012? Many Internet websites say the world will end in December 2012.
Answer (A): Nothing bad will happen to the Earth in 2012. Our planet has been getting along just fine for more than 4 billion years, and credible scientists worldwide know of no threat associated with 2012.
Q: What is the origin of the prediction that the world will end in 2012?
A: The story started with claims that Nibiru, a supposed planet discovered by the Sumerians, is headed toward Earth. This catastrophe was initially predicted for May 2003, but when nothing happened the doomsday date was moved forward to December 2012. Then these two fables were linked to the end of one of the cycles in the ancient Mayan calendar at the winter solstice in 2012 -- hence the predicted doomsday date of December 21, 2012.
Q: Does the Mayan calendar end in December 2012?
A: Just as the calendar you have on your kitchen wall does not cease to exist after December 31, the Mayan calendar does not cease to exist on December 21, 2012. This date is the end of the Mayan long-count period but then -- just as your calendar begins again on January 1 -- another long-count period begins for the Mayan calendar.
Q: Could a phenomena occur where planets align in a way that impacts Earth?
A: There are no planetary alignments in the next few decades, Earth will not cross the galactic plane in 2012, and even if these alignments were to occur, their effects on the Earth would be negligible. Each December the Earth and sun align with the approximate center of the Milky Way Galaxy but that is an annual event of no consequence.
"There apparently is a great deal of interest in celestial bodies, and their locations and trajectories at the end of the calendar year 2012. Now, I for one love a good book or movie as much as the next guy. But the stuff flying around through cyberspace, TV and the movies is not based on science. There is even a fake NASA news release out there..."
- Don Yeomans, NASA senior research scientist Q: Is there a planet or brown dwarf called Nibiru or Planet X or Eris that is approaching the Earth and threatening our planet with widespread destruction?
A: Nibiru and other stories about wayward planets are an Internet hoax. There is no factual basis for these claims. If Nibiru or Planet X were real and headed for an encounter with the Earth in 2012, astronomers would have been tracking it for at least the past decade, and it would be visible by now to the naked eye. Obviously, it does not exist. Eris is real, but it is a dwarf planet similar to Pluto that will remain in the outer solar system; the closest it can come to Earth is about 4 billion miles.
Q: What is the polar shift theory? Is it true that the earth’s crust does a 180-degree rotation around the core in a matter of days if not hours?
A: A reversal in the rotation of Earth is impossible. There are slow movements of the continents (for example Antarctica was near the equator hundreds of millions of years ago), but that is irrelevant to claims of reversal of the rotational poles. However, many of the disaster websites pull a bait-and-shift to fool people. They claim a relationship between the rotation and the magnetic polarity of Earth, which does change irregularly, with a magnetic reversal taking place every 400,000 years on average. As far as we know, such a magnetic reversal doesn’t cause any harm to life on Earth. A magnetic reversal is very unlikely to happen in the next few millennia, anyway.
Earth, as seen in the Blue Marble: Next Generation collection of images, showing the color of the planet's surface in high resolution. This image shows South America from September 2004. Q: Is the Earth in danger of being hit by a meteor in 2012?
A: The Earth has always been subject to impacts by comets and asteroids, although big hits are very rare. The last big impact was 65 million years ago, and that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs. Today NASA astronomers are carrying out a survey called the Spaceguard Survey to find any large near-Earth asteroids long before they hit. We have already determined that there are no threatening asteroids as large as the one that killed the dinosaurs. All this work is done openly with the discoveries posted every day on the NASA NEO Program Office website, so you can see for yourself that nothing is predicted to hit in 2012.
Q: How do NASA scientists feel about claims of pending doomsday?
A: For any claims of disaster or dramatic changes in 2012, where is the science? Where is the evidence? There is none, and for all the fictional assertions, whether they are made in books, movies, documentaries or over the Internet, we cannot change that simple fact. There is no credible evidence for any of the assertions made in support of unusual events taking place in December 2012.
Q: Is there a danger from giant solar storms predicted for 2012?
A: Solar activity has a regular cycle, with peaks approximately every 11 years. Near these activity peaks, solar flares can cause some interruption of satellite communications, although engineers are learning how to build electronics that are protected against most solar storms. But there is no special risk associated with 2012. The next solar maximum will occur in the 2012-2014 time frame and is predicted to be an average solar cycle, no different than previous cycles throughout history.
Question (Q): Are there any threats to the Earth in 2012? Many Internet websites say the world will end in December 2012.
Answer (A): Nothing bad will happen to the Earth in 2012. Our planet has been getting along just fine for more than 4 billion years, and credible scientists worldwide know of no threat associated with 2012.
Q: What is the origin of the prediction that the world will end in 2012?
A: The story started with claims that Nibiru, a supposed planet discovered by the Sumerians, is headed toward Earth. This catastrophe was initially predicted for May 2003, but when nothing happened the doomsday date was moved forward to December 2012. Then these two fables were linked to the end of one of the cycles in the ancient Mayan calendar at the winter solstice in 2012 -- hence the predicted doomsday date of December 21, 2012.
Q: Does the Mayan calendar end in December 2012?
A: Just as the calendar you have on your kitchen wall does not cease to exist after December 31, the Mayan calendar does not cease to exist on December 21, 2012. This date is the end of the Mayan long-count period but then -- just as your calendar begins again on January 1 -- another long-count period begins for the Mayan calendar.
Q: Could a phenomena occur where planets align in a way that impacts Earth?
A: There are no planetary alignments in the next few decades, Earth will not cross the galactic plane in 2012, and even if these alignments were to occur, their effects on the Earth would be negligible. Each December the Earth and sun align with the approximate center of the Milky Way Galaxy but that is an annual event of no consequence.
"There apparently is a great deal of interest in celestial bodies, and their locations and trajectories at the end of the calendar year 2012. Now, I for one love a good book or movie as much as the next guy. But the stuff flying around through cyberspace, TV and the movies is not based on science. There is even a fake NASA news release out there..."
- Don Yeomans, NASA senior research scientist Q: Is there a planet or brown dwarf called Nibiru or Planet X or Eris that is approaching the Earth and threatening our planet with widespread destruction?
A: Nibiru and other stories about wayward planets are an Internet hoax. There is no factual basis for these claims. If Nibiru or Planet X were real and headed for an encounter with the Earth in 2012, astronomers would have been tracking it for at least the past decade, and it would be visible by now to the naked eye. Obviously, it does not exist. Eris is real, but it is a dwarf planet similar to Pluto that will remain in the outer solar system; the closest it can come to Earth is about 4 billion miles.
Q: What is the polar shift theory? Is it true that the earth’s crust does a 180-degree rotation around the core in a matter of days if not hours?
A: A reversal in the rotation of Earth is impossible. There are slow movements of the continents (for example Antarctica was near the equator hundreds of millions of years ago), but that is irrelevant to claims of reversal of the rotational poles. However, many of the disaster websites pull a bait-and-shift to fool people. They claim a relationship between the rotation and the magnetic polarity of Earth, which does change irregularly, with a magnetic reversal taking place every 400,000 years on average. As far as we know, such a magnetic reversal doesn’t cause any harm to life on Earth. A magnetic reversal is very unlikely to happen in the next few millennia, anyway.
Earth, as seen in the Blue Marble: Next Generation collection of images, showing the color of the planet's surface in high resolution. This image shows South America from September 2004. Q: Is the Earth in danger of being hit by a meteor in 2012?
A: The Earth has always been subject to impacts by comets and asteroids, although big hits are very rare. The last big impact was 65 million years ago, and that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs. Today NASA astronomers are carrying out a survey called the Spaceguard Survey to find any large near-Earth asteroids long before they hit. We have already determined that there are no threatening asteroids as large as the one that killed the dinosaurs. All this work is done openly with the discoveries posted every day on the NASA NEO Program Office website, so you can see for yourself that nothing is predicted to hit in 2012.
Q: How do NASA scientists feel about claims of pending doomsday?
A: For any claims of disaster or dramatic changes in 2012, where is the science? Where is the evidence? There is none, and for all the fictional assertions, whether they are made in books, movies, documentaries or over the Internet, we cannot change that simple fact. There is no credible evidence for any of the assertions made in support of unusual events taking place in December 2012.
Q: Is there a danger from giant solar storms predicted for 2012?
A: Solar activity has a regular cycle, with peaks approximately every 11 years. Near these activity peaks, solar flares can cause some interruption of satellite communications, although engineers are learning how to build electronics that are protected against most solar storms. But there is no special risk associated with 2012. The next solar maximum will occur in the 2012-2014 time frame and is predicted to be an average solar cycle, no different than previous cycles throughout history.
Monday, November 9, 2009
NASA to debunk Apocalypse myth
The world is not coming to an end on December 21, 2012, the US space agency insisted Monday in a rare campaign to dispel widespread rumors fuelled by the Internet and a new Hollywood movie.
Sony Pictures latest big screen offering "2012" arrives in theaters on Friday, with a 200-million-dollar production about the end of the world supposedly based on myths backed by the Mayan calendar.
The doomsday scenario revolves claims that the end of time will come as an obscure Planet X -- or Nibiru -- heads toward or collides into Earth.
The mysterious planet was supposedly discovered by the Sumerians, according to claims by pseudo-scientists, paranormal activity enthusiasts and Internet theorists.
Some websites accuse NASA of concealing the truth on the wayward planet's existence, but the US space agency denounced such stories as an "Internet hoax."
"There is no factual basis for these claims," NASA said in a question-and-answer posting on its website.
If such a collision were real "astronomers would have been tracking it for at least the past decade, and it would be visible by now to the naked eye," it added. "Obviously, it does not exist."
"Credible scientists worldwide know of no threat associated with 2012," NASA insisted.
Initial theories set the disaster for May 2003, but when nothing happened the date was moved forward to the winter solstice in 2012 to coincide with the end of a cycle of the ancient Mayan calendar.
But NASA insisted the Mayan calendar in fact does not end on December 21, 2012, as another period begins immediately afterward. And it said there are no planetary alignments on the horizon for the next few decades.
And even if the planets were to line up as some have forecast, the effect on our planet would be "negligible," NASA said.
Among the other theories NASA has set out to debunk are that geomagnetic storms, a pole reversal or unsteadiness in the Earth's crustal plates might befall the planet.
And while comets and asteroids have always hit the Earth, "big hits are very rare," NASA noted. The last major impact was believed to be 65 million years ago, spurring the end of dinosaurs.
"We have already determined that there are no threatening asteroids as large as the one that killed the dinosaurs," the space agency said.
Sony Pictures latest big screen offering "2012" arrives in theaters on Friday, with a 200-million-dollar production about the end of the world supposedly based on myths backed by the Mayan calendar.
The doomsday scenario revolves claims that the end of time will come as an obscure Planet X -- or Nibiru -- heads toward or collides into Earth.
The mysterious planet was supposedly discovered by the Sumerians, according to claims by pseudo-scientists, paranormal activity enthusiasts and Internet theorists.
Some websites accuse NASA of concealing the truth on the wayward planet's existence, but the US space agency denounced such stories as an "Internet hoax."
"There is no factual basis for these claims," NASA said in a question-and-answer posting on its website.
If such a collision were real "astronomers would have been tracking it for at least the past decade, and it would be visible by now to the naked eye," it added. "Obviously, it does not exist."
"Credible scientists worldwide know of no threat associated with 2012," NASA insisted.
Initial theories set the disaster for May 2003, but when nothing happened the date was moved forward to the winter solstice in 2012 to coincide with the end of a cycle of the ancient Mayan calendar.
But NASA insisted the Mayan calendar in fact does not end on December 21, 2012, as another period begins immediately afterward. And it said there are no planetary alignments on the horizon for the next few decades.
And even if the planets were to line up as some have forecast, the effect on our planet would be "negligible," NASA said.
Among the other theories NASA has set out to debunk are that geomagnetic storms, a pole reversal or unsteadiness in the Earth's crustal plates might befall the planet.
And while comets and asteroids have always hit the Earth, "big hits are very rare," NASA noted. The last major impact was believed to be 65 million years ago, spurring the end of dinosaurs.
"We have already determined that there are no threatening asteroids as large as the one that killed the dinosaurs," the space agency said.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
A new article for the 2012 Movie
I really don't take any particular joy in seeing this movie fail because i enjoy the special effects/blockbuster type movies....BUT Cusack should stick to romantic comedy's in my opinion.
The world ravaged by fires, earthquakes, meteor showers and floods and a heroic struggle for survivors.
It sounds like something straight out of Hollywood - and it is. This is the first glimpse of the latest U.S. blockbuster, 2012.
John Cusack leads an all-star cast, featuring Danny Glover, Thandie Newton, Woody Harrelson, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Amanda Peet struggling to stay alive when the Earth is threatened with the biggest disaster man has ever known.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1217925
The world ravaged by fires, earthquakes, meteor showers and floods and a heroic struggle for survivors.
It sounds like something straight out of Hollywood - and it is. This is the first glimpse of the latest U.S. blockbuster, 2012.
John Cusack leads an all-star cast, featuring Danny Glover, Thandie Newton, Woody Harrelson, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Amanda Peet struggling to stay alive when the Earth is threatened with the biggest disaster man has ever known.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1217925
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Top 13 things that will happen on 12.21.2012 by Bruce scofield
13. A NASA probe will discover a 'no trespassing' sign orbiting Venus.
12. The final single critical snowflake will land on Greenland, its weight pushing the ice sheet over the threshold of stability. Oceans will rise 20 feet during the following year as the ice dumps into the sea.
11. The face of Terence McKenna will appear mysteriously on slices of toast and on the sides of many New York city buses -- but only on odd-numbered routes.
10. In one day, before Christmas recess, exactly 260 members of Congress will pass 13 funding bills, with 20 members opposed and 9 abstaining. On the same day a stock truck carrying exactly 260 pigs will break down in Washington DC. Thirteen men wearing Quetzalcoatl masks will herd the pigs into the halls of Congress where 20 lobbyists and 9 congressional interns will be trampled to death, 5,125 legal documents will be trashed, and 144,000 emails lost.
9. After 52 days of fasting and meditation, Mayan sub-elder "Bob" Pedro breaks his silence by uttering: "Wear baggy pants and no one will notice." Scholars later identify this as the punchline to a joke told by an obscure Mayan comic at Tulum.
8. The Golden Age returns! 'Maya Disney', a theme park, will open in Florida.
7. Daniel Pinchbeck will be named CEO of Goldman Sachs.
6. A winter solstice bonfire in Wendell, Massachusetts, stoked with hemp, will miraculously burn for 13 days, thus establishing a new record for sustained consciousness shifting.
5. Mayan space-alien ball players arrive and offer to play the ancient ball game in New Orleans on Christmas day to kick off the new era. Advertisers pass up sponsorship arguing that it will be a loss for them as patriotic Americans will watch only their style of football on that day.
4. Christian missionaries in Guatemala will be shocked to discover that thousands of native converts are only paying lip service to the Christian pantheon of Yahweh, Jesus, Peter, Paul, Mary and Satan.
3. Rachael Ray's Recipes for Disaster: The 2012 Cookbook is on the NY Times Bestseller list. On Oprah, Rachael giddily reveals that she is the False Prophet of the Antichrist.
2. The Maya-Aztec Report software on www.onereed.com will cease to work.
1. Thursday will turn into Friday.
12. The final single critical snowflake will land on Greenland, its weight pushing the ice sheet over the threshold of stability. Oceans will rise 20 feet during the following year as the ice dumps into the sea.
11. The face of Terence McKenna will appear mysteriously on slices of toast and on the sides of many New York city buses -- but only on odd-numbered routes.
10. In one day, before Christmas recess, exactly 260 members of Congress will pass 13 funding bills, with 20 members opposed and 9 abstaining. On the same day a stock truck carrying exactly 260 pigs will break down in Washington DC. Thirteen men wearing Quetzalcoatl masks will herd the pigs into the halls of Congress where 20 lobbyists and 9 congressional interns will be trampled to death, 5,125 legal documents will be trashed, and 144,000 emails lost.
9. After 52 days of fasting and meditation, Mayan sub-elder "Bob" Pedro breaks his silence by uttering: "Wear baggy pants and no one will notice." Scholars later identify this as the punchline to a joke told by an obscure Mayan comic at Tulum.
8. The Golden Age returns! 'Maya Disney', a theme park, will open in Florida.
7. Daniel Pinchbeck will be named CEO of Goldman Sachs.
6. A winter solstice bonfire in Wendell, Massachusetts, stoked with hemp, will miraculously burn for 13 days, thus establishing a new record for sustained consciousness shifting.
5. Mayan space-alien ball players arrive and offer to play the ancient ball game in New Orleans on Christmas day to kick off the new era. Advertisers pass up sponsorship arguing that it will be a loss for them as patriotic Americans will watch only their style of football on that day.
4. Christian missionaries in Guatemala will be shocked to discover that thousands of native converts are only paying lip service to the Christian pantheon of Yahweh, Jesus, Peter, Paul, Mary and Satan.
3. Rachael Ray's Recipes for Disaster: The 2012 Cookbook is on the NY Times Bestseller list. On Oprah, Rachael giddily reveals that she is the False Prophet of the Antichrist.
2. The Maya-Aztec Report software on www.onereed.com will cease to work.
1. Thursday will turn into Friday.
Bruce Scofield and common sense merge ( 2012 skeptic's reading material)
This is the work of Bruce Scofield. He is a brilliant man and an easy read.
The Long and Short of the Mayan Calendar
(Published in The Mountain Astrologer, Dec 2004 /Jan 2005)
By Bruce Scofield
The "Mayan Calendar" is the popular name for the 5,125-year organization of time,
number, astrology, and astronomy employed by the Maya in ancient Mesoamerica.
Archaeologists and historians of Mesoamerican civilization generally refer to this
symbolic time grid as the Long Count. The Long Count has three elements that are shared
with the Western calendar (which governs daily life in the first world): a means of
grouping large periods of time, a base date, and an astrological component.
Time
We use natural astronomical motions to organize time in order to coordinate social
activities. From the counting of Moons in the Paleolithic to the modern definition of the
second by fractioning the Earth’s orbit around the Sun, astronomy has been the backbone
of our calendars and time-keeping systems. In the Western calendar, time is grouped into
solar years, decades, centuries, and millennia. We organize time according to the solar
year in multiples of the number 10, a good number to use if one counts on fingers. In the
Long Count time is grouped into multiples of the numbers 20 (fingers and toes) and also
13, numbers that Westerners are less familiar with. In the Western calendar, time is
linear. There's a starting point, 0, and straight lines move forward and backward in time
from that point. Significance is thought to occur when a multiple of ten is crossed, like
the year 2000. Western time only moves forward, but in the Long Count, time is both
forward and cyclic.
The starting point of the Long Count is August 11, 3114 BCE and the end date is
December 21, 2012, a span of 5,125.37 years or exactly 1,872,000 days. There are
therefore a finite number of days that must occur between the base date and the end date,
and these days are grouped in several blocks of time that cycle simultaneously. One
fundamental time unit used by the Maya, called a tun, measures 360 days and
approximates the solar year. 5,200 tuns make up the Long Count. Another fundamental
time unit is the katun, a period equal to 20 tuns (20 x 360 = 7,200 days or 19.71 years).
Interestingly, a katun is very close (within 54 days) to the mean synodic cycle of Jupiter
and Saturn which is 19.86 years. It is very probable that the katun represents in a
numerologically ideal form the Jupiter/Saturn synodic cycle – similar to the rounding off
of the 365.24 days of the year to 360 degrees of the zodiac. The Maya regarded the katun
of 7,200 days as a major historic time period, a generation marker of sorts. There are 260
katuns in the Long Count as 20 x 260 = 1,872,000 days. The baktun, a period of 144,000
days or 394 years, subsumes 20 katuns and there are exactly 13 baktuns in the Long
Count. Because each baktun contains 20 katuns, it too is related to the cycle of Jupiter
and Saturn conjunctions.
1 solar year = 365.24 days
1 tun = 360 days = 0.99 years
1 Jupiter/Saturn conjunction = 19.86 years
1 katurn = 20 tuns = 19.71 years
20 Jupiter/Saturn conjunctions = 397 years
1 baktun = 20 katuns = 394 years
Okay, let’s review. The Long Count is a 5,125-year span that is composed of 5,200 tuns
(360 days), 260 katuns (7,200 days), and 13 baktuns (144,000 days). Just about all you
need to know about Maya time and number is contained in these figures.
Now some of you may know that the Maya, Aztecs, Toltecs and nearly every distinct
culture that lived in Mesoamerican (ancient Mexico and northern Central America) used
a count of 260 days that forms the core of a unique astrological system. You may also
know about a 20 day sequence of signs, called day-signs, that make up the 260-day count
and function like a zodiac. This eternally repeating sequence of 260 days is called the
tzolkin and it is composed of 13 repeats of the 20 day-signs (13 x 20 = 260).
Archeologists call this 260-day count the divinatory calendar, or the sacred calendar,
because it was, and still is, also used as a divination device. In my writings, I have called
it an astrological calendar for several reasons. First, the twenty signs function like a
zodiac – they symbolize an evolutionary sequence. Second, these day-signs appear to be
imprinted on a person at birth. Trained professionals in ancient times used it to evaluate
personality and destiny and even today, Maya shamanic daykeepers use it for the same
purposes. A third reason is that it resonates strongly with certain astronomical cycles.
Consider the following:
1. Venus’ appearance interval as a morning star or evening star = 263 days.
2. Nine 29-day synodic cycles of the Moon = 261 days
3. The interval from one eclipse period to another (the time it takes the Sun to move
from one lunar node to another) = 173.3 days. This is called the eclipse half year. Three
of these = 520 days, or 2 x 260.
4. The synodic cycle of Mars is 780 days. One third of this figure = 260 days.
5. Twenty synodic cycles of Mercury (about 117 days), four synodic cycles of Venus
(584 days) and three synodic cycles of Mars (780 days) are equivalent to nine cycles of
260 days.
The 260-day count seems to incorporate real sky rhythms and will therefore be
synchronized to a large degree with certain aspects of the changing sky. Finally, it should
be said that the native Maya believe that 260 days is the time of human gestation, and that
the conception day-sign and the birth day-sign should be the same.
Now remember that there are 260 katuns in the Long Count. Consider that the day unit of
the 260-day astrological calendar can be equated with the katun unit of the Long Count –
the tzolkin is a fractal of the Long Count. If the tzolkin is astrological, then is that
property true of the Long Count? That’s something I have addressed in other writings
and will touch on in this one.(1) But first a few more basics so that we can sort our way
through the maze of numbers, symbols, fantastic visions and apocalypic imagery ahead of
us.
Precession
The Long Count as a time-structure defines a 5,125-year period that contains most of
human oral and written history. In fact, ancient history nearly everywhere starts around
3,000 BCE. This was the time of the building of the first Egyptian pyramids and the
establishment of the Old Kingdom, the first writing in Summeria, and the first structures
at Stonehenge were put into place. The Hindu Kali Yuga begins at this time as well.
Because of this coincidence, many have argued that the Mayan Calendar maps out the
evolution of human consciousness. More on this later. For now, however, I want to direct
your attention to the fact that this 5,125-year period is only one fifth of a much larger
cycle, the cycle of the precession of the equinoxes.
As the Earth orbits the Sun, it rotates on its axis 365.24 times. At the same time, the
Earth’s axis is wobbling (like a top) in such a way that if you extended it into space it
would describe a cone over the course of about 25,770 years. This wobbling also
translates into the movement of the equinoxes, the points where the Earth’s extended
equator intersects the Earth’s orbital plane. The equinoxes move backwards against the
constellations at a rate of about 1 degree every 72 years. This changes the stellar
background of the tropical zodiac signs over time and is the basis of the differences
between the tropical and sidereal zodiac. If we take the mean precession cycle of 25,770
years and divide it by 12 we get astrological ages of about 2,148 years. This is one of
Western astrology’s ways of delineating long periods of historical time. Today we are
presumably in the age of Pisces, but near to the age of Aquarius. (2)
Now if we take the mean precession cycle of 25,770 years and divide it 5 we get 5,154
years. This figure is remarkably close to the 5,125-year span of the Long Count.
Considering the fact that the figure given for precession is a mean figure and that the
actual value may vary by two or three hundred years, I’d say this was an extremely
accurate reading of this astronomical motion by the Maya. It is much closer than the
figures given by Plato and those encoded in the Great Pyramid.(3) Both Maya and Aztec
cosmology tell of five great ages, the present age being the fifth. Further, the Maya had
time periods much larger than the Long Count itself, extending time far beyond where it
was taken by ancient Western cultures. This information suggests that the Long Count is
a one-fifth segment of the precession cycle and that Maya time existed before 3114 BCE
and will exist after 2012. It seems reasonable then to regard the beginning and ending of
the Long Count as transition points of the larger precession cycle and not absolute
originations or terminations.
Given the simple technology available to them, the ancient Mesoamerican astronomers
did some amazing work. Not only did they measure the length of the precession cycle,
but they also anchored it with a remarkable alignment, the meeting of the winter solstice
Sun (not the vernal equinox which is used in Western astrology) with the galaxy itself,
the band of the MilkyWay. Since our galaxy is shaped like a disk, we can draw an
equator-like plane through the Milky Way and mark where it intersects the ecliptic, the
plane of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. (see diagram)
Although academic researchers had studied the Long Count for decades, they were not, to
my knowledge, the first to recognize its linkages with the precessional cycle and the
alignment with the center of our galaxy. They did, however, recognize that Maya
cosmology was very night-sky oriented and that the Milky Way, specifically the dark
band that runs inside it for in the vicinity of the ecliptic, figured prominently in their
mythology.In the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, a few astrology-friendly independent
writers and researchers, including Ray Mardyks and John Major Jenkins, were the first to
suggest that the Long Count was more than simply a long string of numbers, it marked
the precession of the winter solstice Sun over the galactic equator. It now appears that the
Maya, or possibly their predecessors, calculated in advance when the winter solstice point
would pass through the dark band in the Milky Way, in 2012, and then projected the
Long Count backwards, arriving at its base date in 3114 B.C. Jenkins, whose writings on
this subject are highly recommended, makes a good case for this calculation having
occurred in Izapa, a very ancient city near the Pacific coast at the Mexican/Guatemalan
border.(4)
The Base Date and the Calendar Correlation Problem
The 260-day astrological calendar in Mesoamerica originated as far back as possibly
2,500 years ago. It is thought that the Long Count of the Maya originated perhaps 500
years later. Both counts appear to have run continuously without interruption since their
beginnings. In order for us to know when a particular day arrives, whether it be in the
260-day count or the Long Count, we must have a method of correlating it with the
Western calendar.
The base date of the Western calendar is the year that Jesus of Nazareth was supposedly
born. Everything in Western history is dated relative to that point, either before (B.C.E.)
or after (A.C.E.). In some cases, researchers use a minus (-) sign to refer to B.C. dates.
(There is no zero year. Year 1 stands but a day apart from year -1). Historians and
astronomers have also numbered the days, as far back as several millennia before the
Common Era, each day having its own unique Julian number, as they are called. One way
of correlating the 260-day astrological calendar or the Long Count with the civil calendar
is to link it to a Julian date. If we know the Julian date of an event, and we have our
calendars linked to this system, then we can move dates back and forth between
calendars.
For nearly a century researchers struggled with the precise location in time of the Long
Count’s base date. During the 1970's and 80's, a majority of investigators in several fields
came to accept a correlation that is supported by many facts known as the Goodman-
Martinez-Thompson correlation, the G.M.T. It is named for the three men who settled on
the same Julian date number for the base date of the Long Count - Julian day #584,283.
This correlation is backed up by ancient stone inscriptions, historical records,
astronomical data, and the oral tradition of the most conservative Maya in Guatemala.
Today, nearly all researchers have accepted that Julian Day #584,283 which corresponds
to August 11, 3114 B.C.E, to be the base date for the Long Count. (5)
Despite the acceptance of this established date, many people have been misled in regard
to the timing of the 260-day calendar and the Long Count. The artist and writer Jose
Arguelles, one of the people behind the Harmonic Convergence of 1987 and the man who
invented Dreamspell, an oracular game based on the Mayan calendar, has promoted some
very questionable ideas about this aspect of Maya culture. Arguelles is a a graphic artist
and master of tech-speak, but he is no astrologer and is certainly not particularly sensitive
to the facts about the Long Count. In his 1987 book The Mayan Factor, Arguelles
explained his belief that the Mayan Calendar is a kind of holographic code that times the
passage of Earth with its human passengers through a beam emanating from the galactic
center. This galactic synchronization will then mark a transition point in the evolution of
consciousness and usher in a new Solar Age. While this is an intriguing idea, it is far
from factual – it is mostly a fantastic product of the imagination. His calendar correlation,
which has led to much confusion on this issue, does not fit with the known facts. Jose
Arguelles and the followers of his writings and his product Dreamspell use a correlation
that now differs from the G.M.T. correlation by seven weeks. Between 2004 and 2008 it
will differ by one day less because it ignores leap year and thus loses one day every four
years. Every day counted to the ancient Maya, no days were ever dropped.
Astrology
While the Western calendar is anchored to the year that Jesus was allegedly born, it
contains a week of seven days that are named for planets. This seven-day week, a quarter
of the lunar cycle, is actually an astrological remnant of the pre-Christian Near East. The
day itself and also the planetary hours (divisions of the day) are thought to have an
astrological quality. Seven planetary rulerships cycle over each 24-hour period and the
hour that begins each day at dawn gives its name to that day. At various times in the
history of Western astrology, the planetary hours were used in the search for propitious
times, to read the destiny of a newborn, and to evaluate the nature of the new year itself.
The planetary hours are a remnant of a kind of astrology that uses blocks of time as
"signs,” very much like the Mesoamerican day-signs, though in a 7-day framework.(6) In
contrast, nearly all of Western astrology since the Greeks uses blocks of space which
hold symbolic meaning, i.e. signs, houses, and aspects. The Mesoamerican astrological
tradition is built on a structure of blocks of time, which function like the spatial signs of
Western astrology.
The Long Count's divisions into 260 katuns and 13 baktuns are blocks of time that one
would expect to have some kind of astrological value since they resonate with the Jupiter-
Saturn cycle. Given that Western astrology, and probably Chinese astrology as well, used
these planets are primary markers of historical change, it seems logical that the Long
Count could also function as an accurate time-grid.(7) But would-be historians, be
warned. Finding events to match the divisions of the Long Count is very different from
arriving at a deep understanding of history and then attempting to perceive a pattern. For
example, the last baktun of the Long Count began in 1618. Certain authors have pointed
to that time as the beginning of materialistic science, and it is true that the scientific
revolution was in full swing then.(8) But most historians see the scientific revolution as a
process that began decades earlier, and some even place it in the late Middle Ages.
The baktun appears to be a reasonably good historical marker, but Western astrology has
plenty of methodology that draws similar grids over history. The Great Mutation Cycle of
Jupiter and Saturn, about 800 years (794 to be exact) marks the shifting of Jupiter/Saturn
conjunctions into Fire signs. It has been one of the premier astrological chronocrators
(along with the precession of signs at the equinox and the saros cycle of eclipses) of
human and Earth history. The last Great Mutation occurred in 1603 and Johannes Kepler
himself wondered, knowing that 800 years earlier Charlemange restored the Holy Roman
Empire and 800 years before that Christ walked the Earth, what kind of new age it would
bring. My point is simply that some New Age writers on the Mayan Calendar are touting
it as far superior to Western astrology, without knowing very much at all about our
subject. Further, these writers are often somewhat disparaging of Western astrology,
treating it like it has nothing of consequence to offer in regard to understanding world
history, or even the evolution of consciousness.(9) I want to point out that many writers
on the Mayan Calendar are clueless when it comes to the larger body of astrological
tradition, which is kept alive and developed further in the NCGR curriculum, Kepler
College and many astrological organizations. That being said, there is a lot to commend
the time-frames built by the Maya.
I have argued that the cornerstone of Mesoamerican astrology is the 260-day astrological
calendar.The Long Count, with its 260 katuns, appears to be simply a large-scale,
mundane version of the 260-day astrological count. The 13 baktuns mark off historic time
as listed below, each one containing 20 katuns which could each be interpreted as a daysign.
Think also of the baktun as a round-figure approximation of 20 Jupiter/Saturn
conjunctions. Each of the 20 katuns contained in a baktun doesn’t necessarily begin or
end with a conjunction, but it is so close to the period that it retains the form of the wave
over a long period of time, regardless of its starting point.(10)
Baktun 1 – 3114 BCE to 2720
Baktun 2 – 2720 to 2325
Baktun 3 – 2325 to 1931
Baktun 4 – 1931 to 1537
Baktun 5 – 1537 to 1143
Baktun 6 – 1143 to 748
Baktun 7 – 748 to 354
Baktun 8 – 354 to 40 ACE
Baktun 9 – 40 to 434
Baktun 10 – 434 to 829
Baktun 11 – 829 to 1223
Baktun 12 – 1223 to 1617
Baktun 13 – 1617 to 2012
The Long Count is a sequence of 13 batuns containing 20 katuns each. The last katun of
each baktun corresponds to the last day-sign of the 20-day count, and the last katun the
entire Long Count could be seen as corresponding with the last day of the entire 260-day
astrological calendar – which is the day 13-Ahau. This opens up a possible avenue of
interpretation, presuming one has a solid understand of the days-signs and the tzolkin.
But there is another way of organizing the katuns in the Long Count. We know for sure
that the Maya also counted katuns in groups of 13, a period of 256 years sometimes
called the Short Count.(11) This cycle length has astronomical counterparts. For example,
13 mean Jupiter/Saturn conjunctions is 258 years, and twice the mean Pluto/Uranus cycle
is 255 years. Does this make this cycle astrological? Astrologers know that Pluto/Uranus
conjunctions pack a big punch and given that this cycle length, these conjunctions will
occur in the same section of the length repeatedly. In a few places I’ve suggested that this
katun cycle was the real Maya prophecy cycle and that it appears to correlate to some
extent with historical events, but this could just as well be attributed to the Jupiter/Saturn
cycle. (12) We are presently in the last katun of the entire Long Count, which is also the
last katun of the Short Count and it correlates with the last day-sign (Ahau) of the last
trecena (1-Lamat).
There is no reason why the sequence of katuns should end in 2012. However, the katun
that begins in 2112 and ends in 2132 will correspond with the first day of the 260-day
count, the day-sign 1-Imix. Although the 260-day calendar is thought to be a continuous
process that can begin at any point within it, 1-Imix is considered the starting point, the
point of initiation. Imix, the sign of creation, symbolizes the crack in the cosmic egg, the
bursting forth of energy moving from one world to another, and the generative and
creative forces that rule the Earth. The sign is also concerned with nourishment and
sustanance and it suggests the need to care for our offspring and our surroundings – our
lives depend on our relationship to our environment. Given the fact that world is already
overpopulated and running out of resources, this symbolism seems quite apt.
The end date of the Long Count is both the terminal point of the current fifth part of the
precessional cycle and, in the context of the Mesoamerican 5-stage creation cosmology,
the terminal point of the entire 25,770-year cycle itself. Like the millennium a few years
ago, prognostications abound as to what will happen. I don’t think this time passage
marks the end of days. The truth is that December 21, 2012, marks the beginning of a
new phase in the precession of the winter solstice – but only if you accept that the dark
band in the Milky Way constitutes the most important anchor point in the entire cycle. If
you are looking for the point when the solstice point aligns exactly with the galactic
equatorial plane itself, then look behind you. This alignment occurred during 1998.
As the position of the winter solstice Sun moves backwards along the eclipitc, it crosses
the line defining the galactic equator over the course of about 36 years. This is because
the disk of the Sun measures about one half degree of longitude and, given the rate of
precession of about 1 degree per 72 years, some part of the Sun will cover this node for
half that time. So the solstice Sun’s initial and final contact points are actually around
1980 and 2116, and because the angle of intersection of the ecliptic and galactic equator
is about 61 degrees, this extends the period of solar contact with the equator by about
another 5 years on each side. So, truth be told, the exact alignment has already occurred.
Were the Maya wrong?
The Maya were more concerned with the passage of the solstice Sun through the dark
band in the Milky Way, clearly visible on a clear night far away from light pollution. In
their cosmology, this dark band was the origin point of the creation, the pathway to the
gods who dwelled in the underworld called Xibalba. Contact of the solstice Sun with this
point would seem extremely signficant given their cosmology and mythololgy. And it
turns out that their calculations were fairly accurate, so the “end date” still stands. But
what does it all mean?
Here we enter Mayan Calendar central, literally and figuratively. First, keep in mind that
the academic researchers (archeologists, archeoastronomers, ethnoastronomers, etc.) have
nothing to say about this matter. They will only point out that the Long Count reaches
completion at this time and that the next cycle then begins, after all the Maya did have
longer periods than the Long Count so they must have expected time to continue. The
indigenous people, however, dropped the Long Count long ago so we don’t have a solid
oral tradition on this topic. Some indigenous Maya have issued prophecies of end times,
but these may not be Long Count prophecies, and it is probable that some of these have
been influenced by American New Age interpretations of their ancestor’s calendar. This
lack of and possible distortion of a native tradition has left the barn door open to
interpretations that are based totally on beliefs. For example, if you believe that there is a
divine plan behind the evolution of consciousness, then you could see the Mayan
Calendar as a time grid that reveals the intelligent process of creation that is making the
world we experience. In other words, the Long Count is evidence of intelligent design
and also a means by which humans can attune themselves to the cosmic junction just
ahead of us in 2012. One could say the same thing about Western or Hindu astrology.
And this is only the beginning for wild interpretations of the Long Count. We can be free
to imagine that the alignment of the solstice Sun with either the galactic equator (which
has already happened), the galactic center (which won’t ever happen but it will be closest
to in a couple of centuries) or the the dark band of the Road to Xibalba (which does
happen around 2012), will trigger a major event.(13) Maybe it will unleash a galactic
beam of consciousness from the center of the galaxy directly to us humans on Earth, and
somehow lead us to join the space brothers in a new world of evolved consciousness and
interstellar peace. And there are many, many variations of this sort with astonishing
details to be found in the steadily growing literature of the Mayan Calendar.
There are a few more points I want to make before I stop squashing fantasies. Many of
the writers on this subject tend to talk about the Mayan Calendar, but base much of their
rationalizations on what we know from the Aztecs. So it’s not just the Mayan Calendar,
but more a kind of Mesoamerican cosmology that is used as the seed point of the
visionary improvisations I’m being critical of. Secondly, astrologers take notice. These
writers typically dump on Western astrology. They hesitate to actually identify the
Mayan Calendar as an astrological system, but that’s a conclusion that is hard to avoid.
Are not astronomically-based time periods that have symbolic meaning a kind of
astrology? Let’s call a spade a spade. So ultimately, these people are actually promoting a
kind of astrological hierarchy, with the Mayan Calendar at the top because it promotes
the “evolution of consciousness” and Western astrology at the bottom because it is
materialistic and based on the wrong numerology.
Third, these writers find what they want to find in history and make it fit their scheme.
While many Western astrologers are guilty of this, those force-fitting the Mayan
Calendar into the very difficult to resolve pulses of European history are stepping into
territory that is over their heads. doing history is as complicated as doing astrology
Fourth, ideas of a golden age, end times and transcendent utopias are all part of a
phenomena called milleniumism, or millieniarianism. This bizarre social pathology has
been going on for, as it turns out, millenia. Humans, driven by religious beliefs, go nuts
when calendars cross boundaries. Let’s be real, most of the New Age literature on the
Mayan Calendar falls into this category and, to my mind, is a manifestion of a much
larger frustration with the way society is going. But it is all very idealistic and so fantastic
that it could be described as a benign (so far) delusion. What we don’t hear about in these
accounts are the real problems humans are facing – global cooperation, population
pressure, and environmental destruction. These are the issues that underlie nearly all the
problems we face. The end-date of the Mayan Calendar won’t save us any more than will
the second coming of Jesus. We have big problems to solve right now. Let’s get on with
it the best way each and every one of us can.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that the Long Count is just another calendar. I am
saying that it is a remarkable creation of Maya culture and that it is also a kind of
astrology that offers another way of measuring symbolic time. Some of its parameters are
intriguing, especially its origin date around 3,100 BCE, without a doubt a most important
time in history. Also intriguing is the midpoint of the Long Count at 551 BCE, about the
time when Pythagoras, Buddha, Lao Tzu and many other wise men lived. Again, it is
indeed possible that the Long Count describes history with some degree of accuracy
because it resonates with the Jupiter/Saturn cycle of conjunctions, which other
astrologically-minded cultures also thought was the key to long-term time analysis. The
ending of the Long Count close to the passage of the winter solstice over the galactic
equator is also interesting and evidence that the Maya were excellent astronomers.
So it is possible that the Long Count is symbollically descriptive of the passage of waves
of time of varying lengths in some ways and I would encourage historically-minded
people to take a closer look. But so are cycles of the outer planets. Both are starting
points for a time analysis of history. Is the Maya way better than the Western way? It
may be so for those seeking to build an identity around a culture that is not theirs and has
little power to challenge them. And that’s what all this Mayan Calendar visionary excess
is about – a need for identity, a need for answers, and a need to believe that things will
get better. If we only wish hard enough. Still, anyone paying attention to the world these
days will know that we are racing at high speeds toward a wall. Whether it be 2012 or
2036 or any other date in the next 50 years for that matter, the shit will hit the fan. Our
consciousness will absolutely have to change, and guess what? It will have to change by
admitting to ourselves that we humans are soiling our nest. We have become selfabsorbed
lemmings dumping our garbage on billions of other life forms that are
supporting our existence. We absolutely must make a shift from a linear, short-term profit
kind of thinking to a non-linear grasp of our interconnectedness with our environment. In
my view, the “transformation of consciousness” is about humans stopping to define
everything in terms of humaness, and that’s not so easy because we just love ourselves so
much that nothing else seems to exist. Just watch television and you’ll see what I mean.
So the Maya may have managed to nail, more or less, perhaps the greatest wake-up call
for humanity since the beginning of the previous glacial period. Pretty impressive.
Footnotes
1. See Scofield, Bruce. Signs of Time. Amherst, MA: One Reed Publications. 1994.,
especially Chapter 7 and pp. 163-173.
2. Most Western astrologers use the tropical zodiac begins at the vernal equinox and is
therefore fixed to the seasonal cycle. The zodiac of the constellations is called the sideral
zodiac, and it is used by Western sidereal astrologers and by Hindu astrologers. For more
information on this topic see my article in TMA #?. See also Rudhyar, Dane. Birth
Patterns for a New Humanity: A Study of Astrological Cycles Structuring the Present
World Crisis. The Netherlands: Servire-Wassenaar, pp. 1969 and Hand, Robert. Essays
on Astrology. Glouster, MA: Para Research. 1982, pp. 147-163.
3. See deVore, Encyclopedia of Astrology. New York: Philosophical Library.1947. pp.
303-309.
4. An excellent work on the Maya calendrics as a precessional system is Jenkins, John
Major. Maya Cosmogenesis 2012. Rochester, VT: Bear & Company, 1998. For those
interested in the numerological technicalities of this subject see also Jenkins’earlier book
Tzolkin: Visionary Perspectives and Calendar Studies. Garberville, CA: Borderland
Sciences Research Foundation, 1994.
5. The consistency of the Maya inscriptions indicates that the 260-day count was not
tampered with. Other calendars were changed, but the count, much like the 7-day
planetary week in the West, never skipped a beat. During the Spanish Invasion of
Mesoamerica a few writers noted specific dates in the Western calendar and in the native
260-day count. When these are compared with the GMT they check out perfectly.
Ethnologists studying the Quiche Maya in Guatamala have found that the 260-day count
used today matches the GMT perfectly also. In other words, the archaeologists,
archaeoastronomers, historians, and present-day Quiche Maya all agree on the correlation
between the Western calendar and the 260-day astrological calendar, the correlation
called the GMT. Several other correlations have been proposed. In Linda Schele's books
(eg. Linda Schele, David Freidel, and Joy Parker's Maya Cosmos: Three Thousand Years
on the Shaman's Path, (New York: William Morrow and Company, 1993) a correlation
proposed by Floyd Loundsbury that differs from the generally accepted GMT by 2 days
is used.
6. The 7-day week is thought to be an idealiztion of one-quarter a composite of the
sidereal and synodic lunar cycles. There may be biological foundation for this period
length as amplitude cycles in some circadian rhythms display a period length of just
under seven days. Woolum JC, Cornélissen G, Halberg F. (2003). Spectral aspects of
Acetabularia's light transmission chronome: effects of enucleation. Neuroendocrinology
Letters. 24 (Suppl 1): 212-215.
7. Chinese astrology, which is about as calendrical as Mayan astrology, is based on a
cycle of sixty years that is divided into two components: a ten-year cycle of stems and a
twelve-year cycle of branches. Six cycles of stems and five of branches is equal to 60
years. Jupiter/Saturn conjunctions have a second order recurrence cycle of 59.58 years
and may be the basis of the period length, during which time Saturn makes two cycles
and Jupiter five. Jupiter’s twelve-year cycle may be the origin of the branches, and quite
possibly the yearly animal zodiac and its five cycles in 60 years is, at the very least,
supportive of the five element theory in Chinese astrology. These relationships appear
obvious to me, but they are generally not stated as such in texts on Chinese astrology.
8. See Arguelles, Jose. The Mayan Factor. Santa Fe, NM: Bear & Company. 1987. and
Calleman, Carl Johan. The Mayan Calendar and the Transformation of Consciousness.
Rochester, Vermont: Bear & Company. 2004.
9. Exactly what is meant by “evolution of consciousness” seems to be largely
unaddressed in these works. While there are many studies of human consciousness
available, none seem to be referred to. I must assume that they mean becoming more
aware of how stupid we are and doing something about it.
10. The fractional point within any given katun that a Jupiter/Saturn conjunction will
occur will shift only very slightly over time. For example, in the 20th century katuns
began in the years in column 1 and Jupiter/Saturn conjunctions occurred during the years
in column 2. Note that these conjunctions are consistently falling about seven years into
each katun.
Katun Jupiter/Saturn conjunction:
1914 1921
1934 1941
1953 1961
1973 1981
1993 2000
Some have speculated Maya time periods are related to the sunspot cycle. However, it
can be argued that the sunspot cycle itself is derived from the movements of Jupiter and
Saturn. The Schwabe cycle of 11.1 years is close to the Jupiter cycle itself, and the Hale
cycle of 20-22 years is close to the Jupiter/Saturn synodic cycle. These correlations are
apparently not simple enough for some and other more complex connections have been
proposed. See Gilber, Adrian G., and Maurice M. Cotterell. The Mayan Prophecies.
Rockport, MA: Element Books. 1995.
11. The several Books of Chilam Balam are post Conquest writings by the Maya that
preserve the structure and symbolism of the Short Count. See Roys, R. L. The Book of
Chilam Balam of Chumayel. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press. 1967. Makemsom,
Maud W. The Book of the Jaguar Priest: A Translation of the Book of Chilam Balam of
Tizimin, with Commentary. New York: Henry Schuman. 1951. Codex Perez and the
Book of Chilam Balam of Mani. Trans. by Eugene R. Craine and Reginal C. Reindorp.
Norman: University of Oklahoma Press. 1979.
12. See my article on katun cycles on www.onereed.com and also Signs of Time, pp.
163-173.
13. The winter-solstice Sun is closest to the galactic centre in 2219, with a couple of
years either side. The distance to the galactic center at the 2219 solstice is 0.8 degrees
closer than in 1998. See Patrick Wallace. http://edj.net/mc2012/truezone.htm. One could
argue that the passage of the winter solstice point, which is on the ecliptic, over the
galactic equator marks the point at which our solar system is aligned to the galaxy. When
either of the equinoxes cross the galactic equator, which won’t occur for a very long time,
then both the Earth and the solar system are aligned with the galaxy. This is because the
plane of the Earth’s equator crosses the plane of the Earth’s orbit at the equinoxes, not the
solstices, and this means both will align with the galactic equator. If tidal forces are any
guide to some sort of “effect,” then this triple nodal alignment should be more signficant.
However, it is true that the winter solstice point, which is on the ecliptic and which lies
well below the equator, is closer to the actual galactic center.
The Long and Short of the Mayan Calendar
(Published in The Mountain Astrologer, Dec 2004 /Jan 2005)
By Bruce Scofield
The "Mayan Calendar" is the popular name for the 5,125-year organization of time,
number, astrology, and astronomy employed by the Maya in ancient Mesoamerica.
Archaeologists and historians of Mesoamerican civilization generally refer to this
symbolic time grid as the Long Count. The Long Count has three elements that are shared
with the Western calendar (which governs daily life in the first world): a means of
grouping large periods of time, a base date, and an astrological component.
Time
We use natural astronomical motions to organize time in order to coordinate social
activities. From the counting of Moons in the Paleolithic to the modern definition of the
second by fractioning the Earth’s orbit around the Sun, astronomy has been the backbone
of our calendars and time-keeping systems. In the Western calendar, time is grouped into
solar years, decades, centuries, and millennia. We organize time according to the solar
year in multiples of the number 10, a good number to use if one counts on fingers. In the
Long Count time is grouped into multiples of the numbers 20 (fingers and toes) and also
13, numbers that Westerners are less familiar with. In the Western calendar, time is
linear. There's a starting point, 0, and straight lines move forward and backward in time
from that point. Significance is thought to occur when a multiple of ten is crossed, like
the year 2000. Western time only moves forward, but in the Long Count, time is both
forward and cyclic.
The starting point of the Long Count is August 11, 3114 BCE and the end date is
December 21, 2012, a span of 5,125.37 years or exactly 1,872,000 days. There are
therefore a finite number of days that must occur between the base date and the end date,
and these days are grouped in several blocks of time that cycle simultaneously. One
fundamental time unit used by the Maya, called a tun, measures 360 days and
approximates the solar year. 5,200 tuns make up the Long Count. Another fundamental
time unit is the katun, a period equal to 20 tuns (20 x 360 = 7,200 days or 19.71 years).
Interestingly, a katun is very close (within 54 days) to the mean synodic cycle of Jupiter
and Saturn which is 19.86 years. It is very probable that the katun represents in a
numerologically ideal form the Jupiter/Saturn synodic cycle – similar to the rounding off
of the 365.24 days of the year to 360 degrees of the zodiac. The Maya regarded the katun
of 7,200 days as a major historic time period, a generation marker of sorts. There are 260
katuns in the Long Count as 20 x 260 = 1,872,000 days. The baktun, a period of 144,000
days or 394 years, subsumes 20 katuns and there are exactly 13 baktuns in the Long
Count. Because each baktun contains 20 katuns, it too is related to the cycle of Jupiter
and Saturn conjunctions.
1 solar year = 365.24 days
1 tun = 360 days = 0.99 years
1 Jupiter/Saturn conjunction = 19.86 years
1 katurn = 20 tuns = 19.71 years
20 Jupiter/Saturn conjunctions = 397 years
1 baktun = 20 katuns = 394 years
Okay, let’s review. The Long Count is a 5,125-year span that is composed of 5,200 tuns
(360 days), 260 katuns (7,200 days), and 13 baktuns (144,000 days). Just about all you
need to know about Maya time and number is contained in these figures.
Now some of you may know that the Maya, Aztecs, Toltecs and nearly every distinct
culture that lived in Mesoamerican (ancient Mexico and northern Central America) used
a count of 260 days that forms the core of a unique astrological system. You may also
know about a 20 day sequence of signs, called day-signs, that make up the 260-day count
and function like a zodiac. This eternally repeating sequence of 260 days is called the
tzolkin and it is composed of 13 repeats of the 20 day-signs (13 x 20 = 260).
Archeologists call this 260-day count the divinatory calendar, or the sacred calendar,
because it was, and still is, also used as a divination device. In my writings, I have called
it an astrological calendar for several reasons. First, the twenty signs function like a
zodiac – they symbolize an evolutionary sequence. Second, these day-signs appear to be
imprinted on a person at birth. Trained professionals in ancient times used it to evaluate
personality and destiny and even today, Maya shamanic daykeepers use it for the same
purposes. A third reason is that it resonates strongly with certain astronomical cycles.
Consider the following:
1. Venus’ appearance interval as a morning star or evening star = 263 days.
2. Nine 29-day synodic cycles of the Moon = 261 days
3. The interval from one eclipse period to another (the time it takes the Sun to move
from one lunar node to another) = 173.3 days. This is called the eclipse half year. Three
of these = 520 days, or 2 x 260.
4. The synodic cycle of Mars is 780 days. One third of this figure = 260 days.
5. Twenty synodic cycles of Mercury (about 117 days), four synodic cycles of Venus
(584 days) and three synodic cycles of Mars (780 days) are equivalent to nine cycles of
260 days.
The 260-day count seems to incorporate real sky rhythms and will therefore be
synchronized to a large degree with certain aspects of the changing sky. Finally, it should
be said that the native Maya believe that 260 days is the time of human gestation, and that
the conception day-sign and the birth day-sign should be the same.
Now remember that there are 260 katuns in the Long Count. Consider that the day unit of
the 260-day astrological calendar can be equated with the katun unit of the Long Count –
the tzolkin is a fractal of the Long Count. If the tzolkin is astrological, then is that
property true of the Long Count? That’s something I have addressed in other writings
and will touch on in this one.(1) But first a few more basics so that we can sort our way
through the maze of numbers, symbols, fantastic visions and apocalypic imagery ahead of
us.
Precession
The Long Count as a time-structure defines a 5,125-year period that contains most of
human oral and written history. In fact, ancient history nearly everywhere starts around
3,000 BCE. This was the time of the building of the first Egyptian pyramids and the
establishment of the Old Kingdom, the first writing in Summeria, and the first structures
at Stonehenge were put into place. The Hindu Kali Yuga begins at this time as well.
Because of this coincidence, many have argued that the Mayan Calendar maps out the
evolution of human consciousness. More on this later. For now, however, I want to direct
your attention to the fact that this 5,125-year period is only one fifth of a much larger
cycle, the cycle of the precession of the equinoxes.
As the Earth orbits the Sun, it rotates on its axis 365.24 times. At the same time, the
Earth’s axis is wobbling (like a top) in such a way that if you extended it into space it
would describe a cone over the course of about 25,770 years. This wobbling also
translates into the movement of the equinoxes, the points where the Earth’s extended
equator intersects the Earth’s orbital plane. The equinoxes move backwards against the
constellations at a rate of about 1 degree every 72 years. This changes the stellar
background of the tropical zodiac signs over time and is the basis of the differences
between the tropical and sidereal zodiac. If we take the mean precession cycle of 25,770
years and divide it by 12 we get astrological ages of about 2,148 years. This is one of
Western astrology’s ways of delineating long periods of historical time. Today we are
presumably in the age of Pisces, but near to the age of Aquarius. (2)
Now if we take the mean precession cycle of 25,770 years and divide it 5 we get 5,154
years. This figure is remarkably close to the 5,125-year span of the Long Count.
Considering the fact that the figure given for precession is a mean figure and that the
actual value may vary by two or three hundred years, I’d say this was an extremely
accurate reading of this astronomical motion by the Maya. It is much closer than the
figures given by Plato and those encoded in the Great Pyramid.(3) Both Maya and Aztec
cosmology tell of five great ages, the present age being the fifth. Further, the Maya had
time periods much larger than the Long Count itself, extending time far beyond where it
was taken by ancient Western cultures. This information suggests that the Long Count is
a one-fifth segment of the precession cycle and that Maya time existed before 3114 BCE
and will exist after 2012. It seems reasonable then to regard the beginning and ending of
the Long Count as transition points of the larger precession cycle and not absolute
originations or terminations.
Given the simple technology available to them, the ancient Mesoamerican astronomers
did some amazing work. Not only did they measure the length of the precession cycle,
but they also anchored it with a remarkable alignment, the meeting of the winter solstice
Sun (not the vernal equinox which is used in Western astrology) with the galaxy itself,
the band of the MilkyWay. Since our galaxy is shaped like a disk, we can draw an
equator-like plane through the Milky Way and mark where it intersects the ecliptic, the
plane of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. (see diagram)
Although academic researchers had studied the Long Count for decades, they were not, to
my knowledge, the first to recognize its linkages with the precessional cycle and the
alignment with the center of our galaxy. They did, however, recognize that Maya
cosmology was very night-sky oriented and that the Milky Way, specifically the dark
band that runs inside it for in the vicinity of the ecliptic, figured prominently in their
mythology.In the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, a few astrology-friendly independent
writers and researchers, including Ray Mardyks and John Major Jenkins, were the first to
suggest that the Long Count was more than simply a long string of numbers, it marked
the precession of the winter solstice Sun over the galactic equator. It now appears that the
Maya, or possibly their predecessors, calculated in advance when the winter solstice point
would pass through the dark band in the Milky Way, in 2012, and then projected the
Long Count backwards, arriving at its base date in 3114 B.C. Jenkins, whose writings on
this subject are highly recommended, makes a good case for this calculation having
occurred in Izapa, a very ancient city near the Pacific coast at the Mexican/Guatemalan
border.(4)
The Base Date and the Calendar Correlation Problem
The 260-day astrological calendar in Mesoamerica originated as far back as possibly
2,500 years ago. It is thought that the Long Count of the Maya originated perhaps 500
years later. Both counts appear to have run continuously without interruption since their
beginnings. In order for us to know when a particular day arrives, whether it be in the
260-day count or the Long Count, we must have a method of correlating it with the
Western calendar.
The base date of the Western calendar is the year that Jesus of Nazareth was supposedly
born. Everything in Western history is dated relative to that point, either before (B.C.E.)
or after (A.C.E.). In some cases, researchers use a minus (-) sign to refer to B.C. dates.
(There is no zero year. Year 1 stands but a day apart from year -1). Historians and
astronomers have also numbered the days, as far back as several millennia before the
Common Era, each day having its own unique Julian number, as they are called. One way
of correlating the 260-day astrological calendar or the Long Count with the civil calendar
is to link it to a Julian date. If we know the Julian date of an event, and we have our
calendars linked to this system, then we can move dates back and forth between
calendars.
For nearly a century researchers struggled with the precise location in time of the Long
Count’s base date. During the 1970's and 80's, a majority of investigators in several fields
came to accept a correlation that is supported by many facts known as the Goodman-
Martinez-Thompson correlation, the G.M.T. It is named for the three men who settled on
the same Julian date number for the base date of the Long Count - Julian day #584,283.
This correlation is backed up by ancient stone inscriptions, historical records,
astronomical data, and the oral tradition of the most conservative Maya in Guatemala.
Today, nearly all researchers have accepted that Julian Day #584,283 which corresponds
to August 11, 3114 B.C.E, to be the base date for the Long Count. (5)
Despite the acceptance of this established date, many people have been misled in regard
to the timing of the 260-day calendar and the Long Count. The artist and writer Jose
Arguelles, one of the people behind the Harmonic Convergence of 1987 and the man who
invented Dreamspell, an oracular game based on the Mayan calendar, has promoted some
very questionable ideas about this aspect of Maya culture. Arguelles is a a graphic artist
and master of tech-speak, but he is no astrologer and is certainly not particularly sensitive
to the facts about the Long Count. In his 1987 book The Mayan Factor, Arguelles
explained his belief that the Mayan Calendar is a kind of holographic code that times the
passage of Earth with its human passengers through a beam emanating from the galactic
center. This galactic synchronization will then mark a transition point in the evolution of
consciousness and usher in a new Solar Age. While this is an intriguing idea, it is far
from factual – it is mostly a fantastic product of the imagination. His calendar correlation,
which has led to much confusion on this issue, does not fit with the known facts. Jose
Arguelles and the followers of his writings and his product Dreamspell use a correlation
that now differs from the G.M.T. correlation by seven weeks. Between 2004 and 2008 it
will differ by one day less because it ignores leap year and thus loses one day every four
years. Every day counted to the ancient Maya, no days were ever dropped.
Astrology
While the Western calendar is anchored to the year that Jesus was allegedly born, it
contains a week of seven days that are named for planets. This seven-day week, a quarter
of the lunar cycle, is actually an astrological remnant of the pre-Christian Near East. The
day itself and also the planetary hours (divisions of the day) are thought to have an
astrological quality. Seven planetary rulerships cycle over each 24-hour period and the
hour that begins each day at dawn gives its name to that day. At various times in the
history of Western astrology, the planetary hours were used in the search for propitious
times, to read the destiny of a newborn, and to evaluate the nature of the new year itself.
The planetary hours are a remnant of a kind of astrology that uses blocks of time as
"signs,” very much like the Mesoamerican day-signs, though in a 7-day framework.(6) In
contrast, nearly all of Western astrology since the Greeks uses blocks of space which
hold symbolic meaning, i.e. signs, houses, and aspects. The Mesoamerican astrological
tradition is built on a structure of blocks of time, which function like the spatial signs of
Western astrology.
The Long Count's divisions into 260 katuns and 13 baktuns are blocks of time that one
would expect to have some kind of astrological value since they resonate with the Jupiter-
Saturn cycle. Given that Western astrology, and probably Chinese astrology as well, used
these planets are primary markers of historical change, it seems logical that the Long
Count could also function as an accurate time-grid.(7) But would-be historians, be
warned. Finding events to match the divisions of the Long Count is very different from
arriving at a deep understanding of history and then attempting to perceive a pattern. For
example, the last baktun of the Long Count began in 1618. Certain authors have pointed
to that time as the beginning of materialistic science, and it is true that the scientific
revolution was in full swing then.(8) But most historians see the scientific revolution as a
process that began decades earlier, and some even place it in the late Middle Ages.
The baktun appears to be a reasonably good historical marker, but Western astrology has
plenty of methodology that draws similar grids over history. The Great Mutation Cycle of
Jupiter and Saturn, about 800 years (794 to be exact) marks the shifting of Jupiter/Saturn
conjunctions into Fire signs. It has been one of the premier astrological chronocrators
(along with the precession of signs at the equinox and the saros cycle of eclipses) of
human and Earth history. The last Great Mutation occurred in 1603 and Johannes Kepler
himself wondered, knowing that 800 years earlier Charlemange restored the Holy Roman
Empire and 800 years before that Christ walked the Earth, what kind of new age it would
bring. My point is simply that some New Age writers on the Mayan Calendar are touting
it as far superior to Western astrology, without knowing very much at all about our
subject. Further, these writers are often somewhat disparaging of Western astrology,
treating it like it has nothing of consequence to offer in regard to understanding world
history, or even the evolution of consciousness.(9) I want to point out that many writers
on the Mayan Calendar are clueless when it comes to the larger body of astrological
tradition, which is kept alive and developed further in the NCGR curriculum, Kepler
College and many astrological organizations. That being said, there is a lot to commend
the time-frames built by the Maya.
I have argued that the cornerstone of Mesoamerican astrology is the 260-day astrological
calendar.The Long Count, with its 260 katuns, appears to be simply a large-scale,
mundane version of the 260-day astrological count. The 13 baktuns mark off historic time
as listed below, each one containing 20 katuns which could each be interpreted as a daysign.
Think also of the baktun as a round-figure approximation of 20 Jupiter/Saturn
conjunctions. Each of the 20 katuns contained in a baktun doesn’t necessarily begin or
end with a conjunction, but it is so close to the period that it retains the form of the wave
over a long period of time, regardless of its starting point.(10)
Baktun 1 – 3114 BCE to 2720
Baktun 2 – 2720 to 2325
Baktun 3 – 2325 to 1931
Baktun 4 – 1931 to 1537
Baktun 5 – 1537 to 1143
Baktun 6 – 1143 to 748
Baktun 7 – 748 to 354
Baktun 8 – 354 to 40 ACE
Baktun 9 – 40 to 434
Baktun 10 – 434 to 829
Baktun 11 – 829 to 1223
Baktun 12 – 1223 to 1617
Baktun 13 – 1617 to 2012
The Long Count is a sequence of 13 batuns containing 20 katuns each. The last katun of
each baktun corresponds to the last day-sign of the 20-day count, and the last katun the
entire Long Count could be seen as corresponding with the last day of the entire 260-day
astrological calendar – which is the day 13-Ahau. This opens up a possible avenue of
interpretation, presuming one has a solid understand of the days-signs and the tzolkin.
But there is another way of organizing the katuns in the Long Count. We know for sure
that the Maya also counted katuns in groups of 13, a period of 256 years sometimes
called the Short Count.(11) This cycle length has astronomical counterparts. For example,
13 mean Jupiter/Saturn conjunctions is 258 years, and twice the mean Pluto/Uranus cycle
is 255 years. Does this make this cycle astrological? Astrologers know that Pluto/Uranus
conjunctions pack a big punch and given that this cycle length, these conjunctions will
occur in the same section of the length repeatedly. In a few places I’ve suggested that this
katun cycle was the real Maya prophecy cycle and that it appears to correlate to some
extent with historical events, but this could just as well be attributed to the Jupiter/Saturn
cycle. (12) We are presently in the last katun of the entire Long Count, which is also the
last katun of the Short Count and it correlates with the last day-sign (Ahau) of the last
trecena (1-Lamat).
There is no reason why the sequence of katuns should end in 2012. However, the katun
that begins in 2112 and ends in 2132 will correspond with the first day of the 260-day
count, the day-sign 1-Imix. Although the 260-day calendar is thought to be a continuous
process that can begin at any point within it, 1-Imix is considered the starting point, the
point of initiation. Imix, the sign of creation, symbolizes the crack in the cosmic egg, the
bursting forth of energy moving from one world to another, and the generative and
creative forces that rule the Earth. The sign is also concerned with nourishment and
sustanance and it suggests the need to care for our offspring and our surroundings – our
lives depend on our relationship to our environment. Given the fact that world is already
overpopulated and running out of resources, this symbolism seems quite apt.
The end date of the Long Count is both the terminal point of the current fifth part of the
precessional cycle and, in the context of the Mesoamerican 5-stage creation cosmology,
the terminal point of the entire 25,770-year cycle itself. Like the millennium a few years
ago, prognostications abound as to what will happen. I don’t think this time passage
marks the end of days. The truth is that December 21, 2012, marks the beginning of a
new phase in the precession of the winter solstice – but only if you accept that the dark
band in the Milky Way constitutes the most important anchor point in the entire cycle. If
you are looking for the point when the solstice point aligns exactly with the galactic
equatorial plane itself, then look behind you. This alignment occurred during 1998.
As the position of the winter solstice Sun moves backwards along the eclipitc, it crosses
the line defining the galactic equator over the course of about 36 years. This is because
the disk of the Sun measures about one half degree of longitude and, given the rate of
precession of about 1 degree per 72 years, some part of the Sun will cover this node for
half that time. So the solstice Sun’s initial and final contact points are actually around
1980 and 2116, and because the angle of intersection of the ecliptic and galactic equator
is about 61 degrees, this extends the period of solar contact with the equator by about
another 5 years on each side. So, truth be told, the exact alignment has already occurred.
Were the Maya wrong?
The Maya were more concerned with the passage of the solstice Sun through the dark
band in the Milky Way, clearly visible on a clear night far away from light pollution. In
their cosmology, this dark band was the origin point of the creation, the pathway to the
gods who dwelled in the underworld called Xibalba. Contact of the solstice Sun with this
point would seem extremely signficant given their cosmology and mythololgy. And it
turns out that their calculations were fairly accurate, so the “end date” still stands. But
what does it all mean?
Here we enter Mayan Calendar central, literally and figuratively. First, keep in mind that
the academic researchers (archeologists, archeoastronomers, ethnoastronomers, etc.) have
nothing to say about this matter. They will only point out that the Long Count reaches
completion at this time and that the next cycle then begins, after all the Maya did have
longer periods than the Long Count so they must have expected time to continue. The
indigenous people, however, dropped the Long Count long ago so we don’t have a solid
oral tradition on this topic. Some indigenous Maya have issued prophecies of end times,
but these may not be Long Count prophecies, and it is probable that some of these have
been influenced by American New Age interpretations of their ancestor’s calendar. This
lack of and possible distortion of a native tradition has left the barn door open to
interpretations that are based totally on beliefs. For example, if you believe that there is a
divine plan behind the evolution of consciousness, then you could see the Mayan
Calendar as a time grid that reveals the intelligent process of creation that is making the
world we experience. In other words, the Long Count is evidence of intelligent design
and also a means by which humans can attune themselves to the cosmic junction just
ahead of us in 2012. One could say the same thing about Western or Hindu astrology.
And this is only the beginning for wild interpretations of the Long Count. We can be free
to imagine that the alignment of the solstice Sun with either the galactic equator (which
has already happened), the galactic center (which won’t ever happen but it will be closest
to in a couple of centuries) or the the dark band of the Road to Xibalba (which does
happen around 2012), will trigger a major event.(13) Maybe it will unleash a galactic
beam of consciousness from the center of the galaxy directly to us humans on Earth, and
somehow lead us to join the space brothers in a new world of evolved consciousness and
interstellar peace. And there are many, many variations of this sort with astonishing
details to be found in the steadily growing literature of the Mayan Calendar.
There are a few more points I want to make before I stop squashing fantasies. Many of
the writers on this subject tend to talk about the Mayan Calendar, but base much of their
rationalizations on what we know from the Aztecs. So it’s not just the Mayan Calendar,
but more a kind of Mesoamerican cosmology that is used as the seed point of the
visionary improvisations I’m being critical of. Secondly, astrologers take notice. These
writers typically dump on Western astrology. They hesitate to actually identify the
Mayan Calendar as an astrological system, but that’s a conclusion that is hard to avoid.
Are not astronomically-based time periods that have symbolic meaning a kind of
astrology? Let’s call a spade a spade. So ultimately, these people are actually promoting a
kind of astrological hierarchy, with the Mayan Calendar at the top because it promotes
the “evolution of consciousness” and Western astrology at the bottom because it is
materialistic and based on the wrong numerology.
Third, these writers find what they want to find in history and make it fit their scheme.
While many Western astrologers are guilty of this, those force-fitting the Mayan
Calendar into the very difficult to resolve pulses of European history are stepping into
territory that is over their heads. doing history is as complicated as doing astrology
Fourth, ideas of a golden age, end times and transcendent utopias are all part of a
phenomena called milleniumism, or millieniarianism. This bizarre social pathology has
been going on for, as it turns out, millenia. Humans, driven by religious beliefs, go nuts
when calendars cross boundaries. Let’s be real, most of the New Age literature on the
Mayan Calendar falls into this category and, to my mind, is a manifestion of a much
larger frustration with the way society is going. But it is all very idealistic and so fantastic
that it could be described as a benign (so far) delusion. What we don’t hear about in these
accounts are the real problems humans are facing – global cooperation, population
pressure, and environmental destruction. These are the issues that underlie nearly all the
problems we face. The end-date of the Mayan Calendar won’t save us any more than will
the second coming of Jesus. We have big problems to solve right now. Let’s get on with
it the best way each and every one of us can.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that the Long Count is just another calendar. I am
saying that it is a remarkable creation of Maya culture and that it is also a kind of
astrology that offers another way of measuring symbolic time. Some of its parameters are
intriguing, especially its origin date around 3,100 BCE, without a doubt a most important
time in history. Also intriguing is the midpoint of the Long Count at 551 BCE, about the
time when Pythagoras, Buddha, Lao Tzu and many other wise men lived. Again, it is
indeed possible that the Long Count describes history with some degree of accuracy
because it resonates with the Jupiter/Saturn cycle of conjunctions, which other
astrologically-minded cultures also thought was the key to long-term time analysis. The
ending of the Long Count close to the passage of the winter solstice over the galactic
equator is also interesting and evidence that the Maya were excellent astronomers.
So it is possible that the Long Count is symbollically descriptive of the passage of waves
of time of varying lengths in some ways and I would encourage historically-minded
people to take a closer look. But so are cycles of the outer planets. Both are starting
points for a time analysis of history. Is the Maya way better than the Western way? It
may be so for those seeking to build an identity around a culture that is not theirs and has
little power to challenge them. And that’s what all this Mayan Calendar visionary excess
is about – a need for identity, a need for answers, and a need to believe that things will
get better. If we only wish hard enough. Still, anyone paying attention to the world these
days will know that we are racing at high speeds toward a wall. Whether it be 2012 or
2036 or any other date in the next 50 years for that matter, the shit will hit the fan. Our
consciousness will absolutely have to change, and guess what? It will have to change by
admitting to ourselves that we humans are soiling our nest. We have become selfabsorbed
lemmings dumping our garbage on billions of other life forms that are
supporting our existence. We absolutely must make a shift from a linear, short-term profit
kind of thinking to a non-linear grasp of our interconnectedness with our environment. In
my view, the “transformation of consciousness” is about humans stopping to define
everything in terms of humaness, and that’s not so easy because we just love ourselves so
much that nothing else seems to exist. Just watch television and you’ll see what I mean.
So the Maya may have managed to nail, more or less, perhaps the greatest wake-up call
for humanity since the beginning of the previous glacial period. Pretty impressive.
Footnotes
1. See Scofield, Bruce. Signs of Time. Amherst, MA: One Reed Publications. 1994.,
especially Chapter 7 and pp. 163-173.
2. Most Western astrologers use the tropical zodiac begins at the vernal equinox and is
therefore fixed to the seasonal cycle. The zodiac of the constellations is called the sideral
zodiac, and it is used by Western sidereal astrologers and by Hindu astrologers. For more
information on this topic see my article in TMA #?. See also Rudhyar, Dane. Birth
Patterns for a New Humanity: A Study of Astrological Cycles Structuring the Present
World Crisis. The Netherlands: Servire-Wassenaar, pp. 1969 and Hand, Robert. Essays
on Astrology. Glouster, MA: Para Research. 1982, pp. 147-163.
3. See deVore, Encyclopedia of Astrology. New York: Philosophical Library.1947. pp.
303-309.
4. An excellent work on the Maya calendrics as a precessional system is Jenkins, John
Major. Maya Cosmogenesis 2012. Rochester, VT: Bear & Company, 1998. For those
interested in the numerological technicalities of this subject see also Jenkins’earlier book
Tzolkin: Visionary Perspectives and Calendar Studies. Garberville, CA: Borderland
Sciences Research Foundation, 1994.
5. The consistency of the Maya inscriptions indicates that the 260-day count was not
tampered with. Other calendars were changed, but the count, much like the 7-day
planetary week in the West, never skipped a beat. During the Spanish Invasion of
Mesoamerica a few writers noted specific dates in the Western calendar and in the native
260-day count. When these are compared with the GMT they check out perfectly.
Ethnologists studying the Quiche Maya in Guatamala have found that the 260-day count
used today matches the GMT perfectly also. In other words, the archaeologists,
archaeoastronomers, historians, and present-day Quiche Maya all agree on the correlation
between the Western calendar and the 260-day astrological calendar, the correlation
called the GMT. Several other correlations have been proposed. In Linda Schele's books
(eg. Linda Schele, David Freidel, and Joy Parker's Maya Cosmos: Three Thousand Years
on the Shaman's Path, (New York: William Morrow and Company, 1993) a correlation
proposed by Floyd Loundsbury that differs from the generally accepted GMT by 2 days
is used.
6. The 7-day week is thought to be an idealiztion of one-quarter a composite of the
sidereal and synodic lunar cycles. There may be biological foundation for this period
length as amplitude cycles in some circadian rhythms display a period length of just
under seven days. Woolum JC, Cornélissen G, Halberg F. (2003). Spectral aspects of
Acetabularia's light transmission chronome: effects of enucleation. Neuroendocrinology
Letters. 24 (Suppl 1): 212-215.
7. Chinese astrology, which is about as calendrical as Mayan astrology, is based on a
cycle of sixty years that is divided into two components: a ten-year cycle of stems and a
twelve-year cycle of branches. Six cycles of stems and five of branches is equal to 60
years. Jupiter/Saturn conjunctions have a second order recurrence cycle of 59.58 years
and may be the basis of the period length, during which time Saturn makes two cycles
and Jupiter five. Jupiter’s twelve-year cycle may be the origin of the branches, and quite
possibly the yearly animal zodiac and its five cycles in 60 years is, at the very least,
supportive of the five element theory in Chinese astrology. These relationships appear
obvious to me, but they are generally not stated as such in texts on Chinese astrology.
8. See Arguelles, Jose. The Mayan Factor. Santa Fe, NM: Bear & Company. 1987. and
Calleman, Carl Johan. The Mayan Calendar and the Transformation of Consciousness.
Rochester, Vermont: Bear & Company. 2004.
9. Exactly what is meant by “evolution of consciousness” seems to be largely
unaddressed in these works. While there are many studies of human consciousness
available, none seem to be referred to. I must assume that they mean becoming more
aware of how stupid we are and doing something about it.
10. The fractional point within any given katun that a Jupiter/Saturn conjunction will
occur will shift only very slightly over time. For example, in the 20th century katuns
began in the years in column 1 and Jupiter/Saturn conjunctions occurred during the years
in column 2. Note that these conjunctions are consistently falling about seven years into
each katun.
Katun Jupiter/Saturn conjunction:
1914 1921
1934 1941
1953 1961
1973 1981
1993 2000
Some have speculated Maya time periods are related to the sunspot cycle. However, it
can be argued that the sunspot cycle itself is derived from the movements of Jupiter and
Saturn. The Schwabe cycle of 11.1 years is close to the Jupiter cycle itself, and the Hale
cycle of 20-22 years is close to the Jupiter/Saturn synodic cycle. These correlations are
apparently not simple enough for some and other more complex connections have been
proposed. See Gilber, Adrian G., and Maurice M. Cotterell. The Mayan Prophecies.
Rockport, MA: Element Books. 1995.
11. The several Books of Chilam Balam are post Conquest writings by the Maya that
preserve the structure and symbolism of the Short Count. See Roys, R. L. The Book of
Chilam Balam of Chumayel. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press. 1967. Makemsom,
Maud W. The Book of the Jaguar Priest: A Translation of the Book of Chilam Balam of
Tizimin, with Commentary. New York: Henry Schuman. 1951. Codex Perez and the
Book of Chilam Balam of Mani. Trans. by Eugene R. Craine and Reginal C. Reindorp.
Norman: University of Oklahoma Press. 1979.
12. See my article on katun cycles on www.onereed.com and also Signs of Time, pp.
163-173.
13. The winter-solstice Sun is closest to the galactic centre in 2219, with a couple of
years either side. The distance to the galactic center at the 2219 solstice is 0.8 degrees
closer than in 1998. See Patrick Wallace. http://edj.net/mc2012/truezone.htm. One could
argue that the passage of the winter solstice point, which is on the ecliptic, over the
galactic equator marks the point at which our solar system is aligned to the galaxy. When
either of the equinoxes cross the galactic equator, which won’t occur for a very long time,
then both the Earth and the solar system are aligned with the galaxy. This is because the
plane of the Earth’s equator crosses the plane of the Earth’s orbit at the equinoxes, not the
solstices, and this means both will align with the galactic equator. If tidal forces are any
guide to some sort of “effect,” then this triple nodal alignment should be more signficant.
However, it is true that the winter solstice point, which is on the ecliptic and which lies
well below the equator, is closer to the actual galactic center.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Quote of the Century for a 2012 Skeptic life
Solar flares won't fry electrical grids. Planet alignment will not change the tides or create tsunamis. There is no Planet X. Scientists don't even talk about 2012.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Cool Newsweek article for my fellow 2012 skeptics
This article plays devils advocate: enjoy.....
For those people making long-term plans, note this: The end of the world as we know it will be on Dec. 21, 2012 — at least, that's if you believe the Mayan calendar.
According to the ancient Mayas, who were known for their timekeeping prowess, the end of the "long count" calendar is only 1,241 days away — and Lawrence Joseph is waiting.
"2012 is indeed considered a profoundly pivotal date in human and in terrestrial history," Joseph says.
Joseph, who authored Apocalypse 2012, says he began looking at Mayan prophecy several years ago. He noticed that the Mayas' end date coincided with peak activity of solar flares three years from now. He says those flares could fry the world's electrical systems, leaving people without electricity for months or years — affecting the distribution of water, fresh food and medication.
"I think we're looking at a nonnegligible possibility that the year 2012 can be really, unprecedentedly tumultuous, and lead to a next and scary chapter in civilization's history," Joseph says.
Joseph doesn't predict the end of the world.
But Hollywood does. The Sony picture 2012 starring John Cusack comes to theaters this fall, and it's no picnic. There are tsunamis cresting over mountains, covering cities, and toppling the Dome of St. Peter's Basilica in Rome, which then rolls down the avenue. The storyline is drawn from various scenarios laid out in books such as The Complete Idiot's Guide to 2012, which foresee earthquakes, drought and planetary collisions. Those books point both to scientifically accepted events such as an upcoming alignment of planets in our solar system — and to, well, not scientifically accepted events such as the arrival of a mysterious Planet X into Earth's orbit.
Skeptical Scientists
Not surprisingly, scientists are not convinced.
"We don't miss big things like that," says Lawrence Rudnick, an astronomer at the University of Minnesota. Solar flares won't fry electrical grids. Planet alignment will not change the tides or create tsunamis. There is no Planet X. Scientists don't even talk about 2012.
"If there was any possibility, even wildly possible that this stuff were true," he says, "there would be all kinds of conferences, there would be articles. There would be a feeding frenzy, and that frenzy just doesn't exist."
But Daniel Pinchbeck, author of 2012: The Return of Quetzalcoatl, says a shift in spiritual consciousness is already happening.
"People are experiencing more synchronicities, more telepathic foretellings, a deeper awareness of how their intention actually inflects what then manifests in their own lives," Pinchbeck says.
Pinchbeck sees signs that the current age is coming to an end: Look at climate change, or the broken financial system. He says all this corresponds with another astrological shift — as the Age of Pisces, which is associated with individuality and sometimes greed, gives way to ... the Age of Aquarius.
"The Age of Aquarius is water," he says. "So it's a flow. It would be more about collaboration, maybe a shift toward a mystical value system."
A New Religious Movement?
Still, anthropologist John Hoopes at the University of Kansas sees something profound here. He says the 2012 believers may be forming a new religious movement, centered on certain mythologies: "the idea that the ancient Mayans lived in a kind of Golden Age at one time, at which they had a deeper understanding of the nature of mystical experiences and insights into other realms of consciousness that we have lost touch with today."
And even if the world is still here on Dec. 22, 2012, Hoopes thinks this community of like-minded New Agers will continue. As for author Joseph, he says he is not at all sure that disaster will fall on that date.
"My basic advice is don't run away," Joseph says. "Take refuge in your own life, be a little bit proactive — and pray."
And don't run up your credit cards, Joseph advises. You'll probably have to pay them off.
For those people making long-term plans, note this: The end of the world as we know it will be on Dec. 21, 2012 — at least, that's if you believe the Mayan calendar.
According to the ancient Mayas, who were known for their timekeeping prowess, the end of the "long count" calendar is only 1,241 days away — and Lawrence Joseph is waiting.
"2012 is indeed considered a profoundly pivotal date in human and in terrestrial history," Joseph says.
Joseph, who authored Apocalypse 2012, says he began looking at Mayan prophecy several years ago. He noticed that the Mayas' end date coincided with peak activity of solar flares three years from now. He says those flares could fry the world's electrical systems, leaving people without electricity for months or years — affecting the distribution of water, fresh food and medication.
"I think we're looking at a nonnegligible possibility that the year 2012 can be really, unprecedentedly tumultuous, and lead to a next and scary chapter in civilization's history," Joseph says.
Joseph doesn't predict the end of the world.
But Hollywood does. The Sony picture 2012 starring John Cusack comes to theaters this fall, and it's no picnic. There are tsunamis cresting over mountains, covering cities, and toppling the Dome of St. Peter's Basilica in Rome, which then rolls down the avenue. The storyline is drawn from various scenarios laid out in books such as The Complete Idiot's Guide to 2012, which foresee earthquakes, drought and planetary collisions. Those books point both to scientifically accepted events such as an upcoming alignment of planets in our solar system — and to, well, not scientifically accepted events such as the arrival of a mysterious Planet X into Earth's orbit.
Skeptical Scientists
Not surprisingly, scientists are not convinced.
"We don't miss big things like that," says Lawrence Rudnick, an astronomer at the University of Minnesota. Solar flares won't fry electrical grids. Planet alignment will not change the tides or create tsunamis. There is no Planet X. Scientists don't even talk about 2012.
"If there was any possibility, even wildly possible that this stuff were true," he says, "there would be all kinds of conferences, there would be articles. There would be a feeding frenzy, and that frenzy just doesn't exist."
But Daniel Pinchbeck, author of 2012: The Return of Quetzalcoatl, says a shift in spiritual consciousness is already happening.
"People are experiencing more synchronicities, more telepathic foretellings, a deeper awareness of how their intention actually inflects what then manifests in their own lives," Pinchbeck says.
Pinchbeck sees signs that the current age is coming to an end: Look at climate change, or the broken financial system. He says all this corresponds with another astrological shift — as the Age of Pisces, which is associated with individuality and sometimes greed, gives way to ... the Age of Aquarius.
"The Age of Aquarius is water," he says. "So it's a flow. It would be more about collaboration, maybe a shift toward a mystical value system."
A New Religious Movement?
Still, anthropologist John Hoopes at the University of Kansas sees something profound here. He says the 2012 believers may be forming a new religious movement, centered on certain mythologies: "the idea that the ancient Mayans lived in a kind of Golden Age at one time, at which they had a deeper understanding of the nature of mystical experiences and insights into other realms of consciousness that we have lost touch with today."
And even if the world is still here on Dec. 22, 2012, Hoopes thinks this community of like-minded New Agers will continue. As for author Joseph, he says he is not at all sure that disaster will fall on that date.
"My basic advice is don't run away," Joseph says. "Take refuge in your own life, be a little bit proactive — and pray."
And don't run up your credit cards, Joseph advises. You'll probably have to pay them off.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
2012 The Movie
Here we Go! Set to come out on November 13, 2009 is the official hoax movie of the year complete with a link http://www.thisistheend.com/ which is actually pretty funny. You heard it first from Charlie Frost :)
http://www.whowillsurvive2012.com/
http://www.whowillsurvive2012.com/
Monday, June 22, 2009
Top 10 ways to destroy Earth that doesn't involve 2012 necessarily
I was busy trolling the Internet today when i found this article from "live science" By Sam Hughes. It gives all the different ways that the earth could be destroyed if at all. ENJOY B/C I DID! :)
1. Hurled into the Sun
You will need: Earthmoving equipment
Method: Hurl the Earth into the Sun. Sending Earth on a collision course with the Sun is not as easy as one might think; even though you don't actually have to literally hit the Sun (send the Earth near enough to the Sun (within the Roche limit), and tidal forces will tear it apart), it's surprisingly easy to end up with Earth in a loopy elliptical orbit which merely roasts it for four months in every eight. But careful planning can avoid this.
This is impossible at our current technological level, but will be possible one day, I'm certain. In the meantime, may happen by freak accident if something comes out of nowhere and randomly knocks Earth in precisely the right direction. Earth's final resting place: a small globule of vaporized iron sinking slowly into the heart of the Sun.
Earliest feasible completion date: Via act of God: 25 years' time. Any earlier and we'd have already spotted the asteroid in question. Via human intervention: given the current level of expansion of space technology, 2250 at best.
Source: "Infinity Welcomes Careful Drivers," by Grant Naylor
2. Eaten by von Neumann machines
You will need: a single von Neumann machine
Method: A von Neumann machine is any device that is capable of creating an exact copy of itself given nothing but the necessary raw materials. Create one of these that subsists almost entirely on iron, magnesium, aluminum and silicon, the major elements found in Earth's mantle and core. It doesn't matter how big it is as long as it can reproduce itself exactly in any period of time. Release it into the ground under the Earth's crust and allow it to fend for itself. Watch and wait as it creates a second von Neumann machine, then they create two more, then they create four more. As the population of machines doubles repeatedly, the planet Earth will, terrifyingly soon, be entirely eaten up and turned into a swarm of potentially sextillions of machines. Technically your objective would now be complete - no more Earth - but if you want to be thorough then you can command your VNMs to hurl themselves, along with any remaining trace elements, into the Sun. This hurling would have to be achieved using rocket propulsion of some sort, so be sure to include this in your design.
So crazy it might just work.
Earth's final resting place: the bodies of the VNMs themselves, then a small lump of iron sinking into the Sun.
Earliest feasible completion date: Potentially 2045-2050, or even earlier.
Source: "2010: Odyssey Two," by Arthur C. Clarke
3. Pulverized by impact with blunt instrument
You will need: a big heavy rock, something with a bit of a swing to it... perhaps Mars
Method: Essentially, anything can be destroyed if you hit it hard enough. ANYTHING. The concept is simple: find a really, really big asteroid or planet, accelerate it up to some dazzling speed, and smash it into Earth, preferably head-on but whatever you can manage. The result: an absolutely spectacular collision, resulting hopefully in Earth (and, most likely, our "cue ball" too) being pulverized out of existence - smashed into any number of large pieces which if the collision is hard enough should have enough energy to overcome their mutual gravity and drift away forever, never to coagulate back into a planet again.
A brief analysis of the size of the object required can be found here. Falling at the minimal impact velocity of 11 kilometers per second and assuming zero energy loss to heat and other energy forms, the cue ball would have to have roughly 60% of the mass of the Earth. Mars, the next planet out, "weighs" in at about 11% of Earth's mass, while Venus, the next planet in and also the nearest to Earth, has about 81%. Assuming that we would fire our cue ball into Earth at much greater than 11km/s (I'm thinking more like 50km/s), either of these would make great possibilities.
Obviously a smaller rock would do the job, you just need to fire it faster. A 10,000,000,000,000-tonne asteroid at 90% of light speed would do just as well. See the Guide to moving Earth for useful information on maneuvering big hunks of rock across interplanetary distances.
Pretty plausible.
Earth's final resting place: a variety of roughly Moon-sized chunks of rock, scattered haphazardly across the greater Solar System.
Earliest feasible completion date: AD 2500, maybe?
Source: This method suggested by Andy Kirkpatrick
4. Meticulously and systematically deconstructed
You will need: a powerful mass driver, or ideally lots of them; ready access to roughly 2*10^32J
Method: Basically, what we're going to do here is dig up the Earth, a big chunk at a time, and boost the whole lot of it into orbit. Yes. All six sextillion tons of it. A mass driver is a sort of oversized electromagnetic railgun, which was once proposed as a way of getting mined materials back from the Moon to Earth - basically, you just load it into the driver and fire it upwards in roughly the right direction. We'd use a particularly powerful model - big enough to hit escape velocity of 11 kilometers per second even after atmospheric considerations - and launch it all into the Sun or randomly into space.
Alternate methods for boosting the material into space include loading the extracted material into space shuttles or taking it up via space elevator. All these methods, however, require a - let me emphasize this - titanic quantity of energy to carry out. Building a Dyson sphere ain't gonna cut it here. (Note: Actually, it would. But if you have the technology to build a Dyson sphere, why are you reading this?) See No. 6 for a possible solution.
If we wanted to and were willing to devote resources to it, we could start this process RIGHT NOW. Indeed, what with all the gunk left in orbit, on the Moon and heading out into space, we already have done.
Earth's final resting place: Many tiny pieces, some dropped into the Sun, the remainder scattered across the rest of the Solar System.
Earliest feasible completion date: Ah. Yes. At a billion tons of mass driven out of the Earth's gravity well per second: 189,000,000 years.
Source: this method arose when Joe Baldwin and I knocked our heads together by accident.
5. Sucked into a giant black hole
You will need: a black hole, extremely powerful rocket engines, and, optionally, a large rocky planetary body. The nearest black hole to our planet is 1600 light years from Earth in the direction of Sagittarius, orbiting V4641.
Method: after locating your black hole, you need get it and the Earth together. This is likely to be the most time-consuming part of this plan. There are two methods, moving Earth or moving the black hole, though for best results you'd most likely move both at once.
Very difficult, but definitely possible.
Earth's final resting place: part of the mass of the black hole.
Earliest feasible completion date: I do not expect the necessary technology to be available until AD 3000, and add at least 800 years for travel time. (That's in an external observer's frame of reference and assuming you move both the Earth and the black hole at the same time.)
Sources: "The Hitch Hiker's Guide To The Galaxy," by Douglas Adams; SPACE.com
6. Destroyed by vacuum energy detonation
You will need: a light bulb
Method: This is a fun one. Contemporary scientific theories tell us that what we may see as vacuum is only vacuum on average, and actually thriving with vast amounts of particles and antiparticles constantly appearing and then annihilating each other. It also suggests that the volume of space enclosed by a light bulb contains enough vacuum energy to boil every ocean in the world. Therefore, vacuum energy could prove to be the most abundant energy source of any kind. Which is where you come in. All you need to do is figure out how to extract this energy and harness it in some kind of power plant - this can easily be done without arousing too much suspicion - then surreptitiously allow the reaction to run out of control. The resulting release of energy would easily be enough to annihilate all of planet Earth and probably the Sun too.
Slightly possible.
Earth's final resting place: a rapidly expanding cloud of particles of varying size.
Earliest feasible completion date: 2060 or so.
Source: "3001: The Final Odyssey," by Arthur C. Clarke
7. Blown up by matter/antimatter reaction
You will need: 2,500,000,000,000 tons of antimatter
Antimatter - the most explosive substance possible - can be manufactured in small quantities using any large particle accelerator, but this will take some considerable time to produce the required amounts. If you can create the appropriate machinery, it may be possible - and much easier - simply to "flip" 2.5 trillion tons of matter through a fourth dimension, turning it all to antimatter at once.
Method: This method involves detonating a bomb so big that it blasts the Earth to pieces.
How hard is that?
The gravitational binding energy of a planet of mass M and radius R is - if you do the lengthy calculations - given by the formula E=(3/5)GM^2/R. For Earth, that works out to roughly 224,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Joules. The Sun takes nearly a WEEK to output that much energy. Think about THAT.
To liberate that much energy requires the complete annihilation of around 2,500,000,000,000 tonnes of antimatter. That's assuming zero energy loss to heat and radiation, which is unlikely to be the case in reality: You'll probably need to up the dose by at least a factor of ten. Once you've generated your antimatter, probably in space, just launch it en masse towards Earth. The resulting release of energy (obeying Einstein's famous mass-energy equation, E=mc^2) should be sufficient to split the Earth into a thousand pieces.
Earth's final resting place: A second asteroid belt around the Sun.
Earliest feasible completion date: AD 2500. Of course, if it does prove possible to manufacture antimatter in the sufficiently large quantities you require - which is not necessarily the case - then smaller antimatter bombs will be around long before then.
8. Sucked into a microscopic black hole
You will need: a microscopic black hole. Note that black holes are not eternal, they evaporate due to Hawking radiation. For your average black hole this takes an unimaginable amount of time, but for really small ones it could happen almost instantaneously, as evaporation time is dependent on mass. Therefore you microscopic black hole must have greater than a certain threshold mass, roughly equal to the mass of Mount Everest. Creating a microscopic black hole is tricky, since one needs a reasonable amount of neutronium, but may possibly be achievable by jamming large numbers of atomic nuclei together until they stick. This is left as an exercise to the reader.
Method: simply place your black hole on the surface of the Earth and wait. Black holes are of such high density that they pass through ordinary matter like a stone through the air. The black hole will plummet through the ground, eating its way to the center of the Earth and all the way through to the other side: then, it'll oscillate back, over and over like a matter-absorbing pendulum. Eventually it will come to rest at the core, having absorbed enough matter to slow it down. Then you just need to wait, while it sits and consumes matter until the whole Earth is gone.
Highly, highly unlikely. But not impossible.
Earth's final resting place: a singularity of almost zero size, which will then proceed to happily orbit the Sun as normal.
Source: "The Dark Side Of The Sun," by Terry Pratchett. It is true that the microscopic black hole idea is an age-old science fiction mainstay which predates Pratchett by a long time, he was my original source for the idea, so that's what I'm putting.
9. Gobbled up by strangeletsYou will need: a stable strangelet
Method: Hijack control of the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider in Brookhaven National Laboratory, Long Island, New York. Use the RHIC to create and maintain a stable strangelet. Keep it stable for as long as it takes to absorb the entire Earth into a mass of strange quarks. Keeping the strangelet stable is incredibly difficult once it has absorbed the stabilizing machinery, but creative solutions may be possible.
A while back, there was some media hoo-hah about the possibility of this actually happening at the RHIC, but in actuality the chances of a stable strangelet forming are pretty much zero.
Earth's final resting place: a huge glob of strange matter.
10. existence failure
You will need: nothing
Method: No method. Simply sit back and twiddle your thumbs as, completely by chance, all 200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 atoms making up the planet Earth suddenly, simultaneously and spontaneously cease to exist. Note: the odds against this actually ever occurring are considerably greater than a googolplex to one. Failing this, some kind of arcane (read: scientifically laughable) probability-manipulation device may be employed.
1. Hurled into the Sun
You will need: Earthmoving equipment
Method: Hurl the Earth into the Sun. Sending Earth on a collision course with the Sun is not as easy as one might think; even though you don't actually have to literally hit the Sun (send the Earth near enough to the Sun (within the Roche limit), and tidal forces will tear it apart), it's surprisingly easy to end up with Earth in a loopy elliptical orbit which merely roasts it for four months in every eight. But careful planning can avoid this.
This is impossible at our current technological level, but will be possible one day, I'm certain. In the meantime, may happen by freak accident if something comes out of nowhere and randomly knocks Earth in precisely the right direction. Earth's final resting place: a small globule of vaporized iron sinking slowly into the heart of the Sun.
Earliest feasible completion date: Via act of God: 25 years' time. Any earlier and we'd have already spotted the asteroid in question. Via human intervention: given the current level of expansion of space technology, 2250 at best.
Source: "Infinity Welcomes Careful Drivers," by Grant Naylor
2. Eaten by von Neumann machines
You will need: a single von Neumann machine
Method: A von Neumann machine is any device that is capable of creating an exact copy of itself given nothing but the necessary raw materials. Create one of these that subsists almost entirely on iron, magnesium, aluminum and silicon, the major elements found in Earth's mantle and core. It doesn't matter how big it is as long as it can reproduce itself exactly in any period of time. Release it into the ground under the Earth's crust and allow it to fend for itself. Watch and wait as it creates a second von Neumann machine, then they create two more, then they create four more. As the population of machines doubles repeatedly, the planet Earth will, terrifyingly soon, be entirely eaten up and turned into a swarm of potentially sextillions of machines. Technically your objective would now be complete - no more Earth - but if you want to be thorough then you can command your VNMs to hurl themselves, along with any remaining trace elements, into the Sun. This hurling would have to be achieved using rocket propulsion of some sort, so be sure to include this in your design.
So crazy it might just work.
Earth's final resting place: the bodies of the VNMs themselves, then a small lump of iron sinking into the Sun.
Earliest feasible completion date: Potentially 2045-2050, or even earlier.
Source: "2010: Odyssey Two," by Arthur C. Clarke
3. Pulverized by impact with blunt instrument
You will need: a big heavy rock, something with a bit of a swing to it... perhaps Mars
Method: Essentially, anything can be destroyed if you hit it hard enough. ANYTHING. The concept is simple: find a really, really big asteroid or planet, accelerate it up to some dazzling speed, and smash it into Earth, preferably head-on but whatever you can manage. The result: an absolutely spectacular collision, resulting hopefully in Earth (and, most likely, our "cue ball" too) being pulverized out of existence - smashed into any number of large pieces which if the collision is hard enough should have enough energy to overcome their mutual gravity and drift away forever, never to coagulate back into a planet again.
A brief analysis of the size of the object required can be found here. Falling at the minimal impact velocity of 11 kilometers per second and assuming zero energy loss to heat and other energy forms, the cue ball would have to have roughly 60% of the mass of the Earth. Mars, the next planet out, "weighs" in at about 11% of Earth's mass, while Venus, the next planet in and also the nearest to Earth, has about 81%. Assuming that we would fire our cue ball into Earth at much greater than 11km/s (I'm thinking more like 50km/s), either of these would make great possibilities.
Obviously a smaller rock would do the job, you just need to fire it faster. A 10,000,000,000,000-tonne asteroid at 90% of light speed would do just as well. See the Guide to moving Earth for useful information on maneuvering big hunks of rock across interplanetary distances.
Pretty plausible.
Earth's final resting place: a variety of roughly Moon-sized chunks of rock, scattered haphazardly across the greater Solar System.
Earliest feasible completion date: AD 2500, maybe?
Source: This method suggested by Andy Kirkpatrick
4. Meticulously and systematically deconstructed
You will need: a powerful mass driver, or ideally lots of them; ready access to roughly 2*10^32J
Method: Basically, what we're going to do here is dig up the Earth, a big chunk at a time, and boost the whole lot of it into orbit. Yes. All six sextillion tons of it. A mass driver is a sort of oversized electromagnetic railgun, which was once proposed as a way of getting mined materials back from the Moon to Earth - basically, you just load it into the driver and fire it upwards in roughly the right direction. We'd use a particularly powerful model - big enough to hit escape velocity of 11 kilometers per second even after atmospheric considerations - and launch it all into the Sun or randomly into space.
Alternate methods for boosting the material into space include loading the extracted material into space shuttles or taking it up via space elevator. All these methods, however, require a - let me emphasize this - titanic quantity of energy to carry out. Building a Dyson sphere ain't gonna cut it here. (Note: Actually, it would. But if you have the technology to build a Dyson sphere, why are you reading this?) See No. 6 for a possible solution.
If we wanted to and were willing to devote resources to it, we could start this process RIGHT NOW. Indeed, what with all the gunk left in orbit, on the Moon and heading out into space, we already have done.
Earth's final resting place: Many tiny pieces, some dropped into the Sun, the remainder scattered across the rest of the Solar System.
Earliest feasible completion date: Ah. Yes. At a billion tons of mass driven out of the Earth's gravity well per second: 189,000,000 years.
Source: this method arose when Joe Baldwin and I knocked our heads together by accident.
5. Sucked into a giant black hole
You will need: a black hole, extremely powerful rocket engines, and, optionally, a large rocky planetary body. The nearest black hole to our planet is 1600 light years from Earth in the direction of Sagittarius, orbiting V4641.
Method: after locating your black hole, you need get it and the Earth together. This is likely to be the most time-consuming part of this plan. There are two methods, moving Earth or moving the black hole, though for best results you'd most likely move both at once.
Very difficult, but definitely possible.
Earth's final resting place: part of the mass of the black hole.
Earliest feasible completion date: I do not expect the necessary technology to be available until AD 3000, and add at least 800 years for travel time. (That's in an external observer's frame of reference and assuming you move both the Earth and the black hole at the same time.)
Sources: "The Hitch Hiker's Guide To The Galaxy," by Douglas Adams; SPACE.com
6. Destroyed by vacuum energy detonation
You will need: a light bulb
Method: This is a fun one. Contemporary scientific theories tell us that what we may see as vacuum is only vacuum on average, and actually thriving with vast amounts of particles and antiparticles constantly appearing and then annihilating each other. It also suggests that the volume of space enclosed by a light bulb contains enough vacuum energy to boil every ocean in the world. Therefore, vacuum energy could prove to be the most abundant energy source of any kind. Which is where you come in. All you need to do is figure out how to extract this energy and harness it in some kind of power plant - this can easily be done without arousing too much suspicion - then surreptitiously allow the reaction to run out of control. The resulting release of energy would easily be enough to annihilate all of planet Earth and probably the Sun too.
Slightly possible.
Earth's final resting place: a rapidly expanding cloud of particles of varying size.
Earliest feasible completion date: 2060 or so.
Source: "3001: The Final Odyssey," by Arthur C. Clarke
7. Blown up by matter/antimatter reaction
You will need: 2,500,000,000,000 tons of antimatter
Antimatter - the most explosive substance possible - can be manufactured in small quantities using any large particle accelerator, but this will take some considerable time to produce the required amounts. If you can create the appropriate machinery, it may be possible - and much easier - simply to "flip" 2.5 trillion tons of matter through a fourth dimension, turning it all to antimatter at once.
Method: This method involves detonating a bomb so big that it blasts the Earth to pieces.
How hard is that?
The gravitational binding energy of a planet of mass M and radius R is - if you do the lengthy calculations - given by the formula E=(3/5)GM^2/R. For Earth, that works out to roughly 224,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Joules. The Sun takes nearly a WEEK to output that much energy. Think about THAT.
To liberate that much energy requires the complete annihilation of around 2,500,000,000,000 tonnes of antimatter. That's assuming zero energy loss to heat and radiation, which is unlikely to be the case in reality: You'll probably need to up the dose by at least a factor of ten. Once you've generated your antimatter, probably in space, just launch it en masse towards Earth. The resulting release of energy (obeying Einstein's famous mass-energy equation, E=mc^2) should be sufficient to split the Earth into a thousand pieces.
Earth's final resting place: A second asteroid belt around the Sun.
Earliest feasible completion date: AD 2500. Of course, if it does prove possible to manufacture antimatter in the sufficiently large quantities you require - which is not necessarily the case - then smaller antimatter bombs will be around long before then.
8. Sucked into a microscopic black hole
You will need: a microscopic black hole. Note that black holes are not eternal, they evaporate due to Hawking radiation. For your average black hole this takes an unimaginable amount of time, but for really small ones it could happen almost instantaneously, as evaporation time is dependent on mass. Therefore you microscopic black hole must have greater than a certain threshold mass, roughly equal to the mass of Mount Everest. Creating a microscopic black hole is tricky, since one needs a reasonable amount of neutronium, but may possibly be achievable by jamming large numbers of atomic nuclei together until they stick. This is left as an exercise to the reader.
Method: simply place your black hole on the surface of the Earth and wait. Black holes are of such high density that they pass through ordinary matter like a stone through the air. The black hole will plummet through the ground, eating its way to the center of the Earth and all the way through to the other side: then, it'll oscillate back, over and over like a matter-absorbing pendulum. Eventually it will come to rest at the core, having absorbed enough matter to slow it down. Then you just need to wait, while it sits and consumes matter until the whole Earth is gone.
Highly, highly unlikely. But not impossible.
Earth's final resting place: a singularity of almost zero size, which will then proceed to happily orbit the Sun as normal.
Source: "The Dark Side Of The Sun," by Terry Pratchett. It is true that the microscopic black hole idea is an age-old science fiction mainstay which predates Pratchett by a long time, he was my original source for the idea, so that's what I'm putting.
9. Gobbled up by strangeletsYou will need: a stable strangelet
Method: Hijack control of the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider in Brookhaven National Laboratory, Long Island, New York. Use the RHIC to create and maintain a stable strangelet. Keep it stable for as long as it takes to absorb the entire Earth into a mass of strange quarks. Keeping the strangelet stable is incredibly difficult once it has absorbed the stabilizing machinery, but creative solutions may be possible.
A while back, there was some media hoo-hah about the possibility of this actually happening at the RHIC, but in actuality the chances of a stable strangelet forming are pretty much zero.
Earth's final resting place: a huge glob of strange matter.
10. existence failure
You will need: nothing
Method: No method. Simply sit back and twiddle your thumbs as, completely by chance, all 200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 atoms making up the planet Earth suddenly, simultaneously and spontaneously cease to exist. Note: the odds against this actually ever occurring are considerably greater than a googolplex to one. Failing this, some kind of arcane (read: scientifically laughable) probability-manipulation device may be employed.
NASA and the Real World (not your kooky 2012 wierdo) a 2012 skeptic's view
NASA employs thousands of scientists from across the political and religious spectrum, the very idea that every single one of them would hide anything they believed to be the potential destruction of the Earth is absolutely ridiculous. Most conspiracy theories make claims that 'someone' is 'hiding something' regardless of how impossible that thing would be to hide in any real world situation. For Us who live in the real world realize that most people who divulge in this topic are out to make a quick buck. I applaud such entrepreneurial spirit and hope that they continue with this hype as i will continue to discredit them and hopefully benefit from their embarrassment.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Commons beliefs of the December 21 2012 from a non-skeptic
Today i wanted to post some common beliefs of what is going to happen on our favorite day.
•Galactic Alignment. This Galactic Alignment occurs only once every 26,000, this is considered as the end-date in the Mayans Long Count calender. It is the alignment of the December solstice sun with the Galactic equator.
•A comet hitting Earth (Nostradamus)
•Earth’s Pole Shift/Magnetic field reversal
•Increase of calamities, natural disasters, mass destruction, etc.
••Planet X getting near Earth or hitting Earth
•Meteor hitting Earth (Thanks Nostradamus)
•Planetary alignment leading to a major gravity burst with Earth being swallowed by the center of the galaxy.
•New dimensions opening...........Seriously, if you believe this i have some stuff you need to buy, very nice and expensive.
•Galactic Alignment. This Galactic Alignment occurs only once every 26,000, this is considered as the end-date in the Mayans Long Count calender. It is the alignment of the December solstice sun with the Galactic equator.
•A comet hitting Earth (Nostradamus)
•Earth’s Pole Shift/Magnetic field reversal
•Increase of calamities, natural disasters, mass destruction, etc.
••Planet X getting near Earth or hitting Earth
•Meteor hitting Earth (Thanks Nostradamus)
•Planetary alignment leading to a major gravity burst with Earth being swallowed by the center of the galaxy.
•New dimensions opening...........Seriously, if you believe this i have some stuff you need to buy, very nice and expensive.
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